Wednesday, July 7, 2010

1.The title. A MOST DIFFICULT PATH TO FINANCIAL FREEDOM.

ANYONE WHO WILL TRY TO MAKE MONEY SOLELY BY TRADING AND SUCH SYSTEMS OF TRANSACTIONS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THERE IS A VERY POWERFUL AND ALMOST UNBEATABLE COLLECTIVE WILL SO AS NOT TO SUCCEED!  NO-ONE WANTS  PEOPLE TO QUITE THEIR JOBS AND MAKE MONEY THIS WAY AS IT IS SOMEHOW PARASITIC. IT IS IN SOME SENSE  UNETHICAL AS A PRACTICE ENFORCEABLE  TO  THE MAJORITY. AND OF COURSE NEITHER THOSE WHO HAVE LARGE CAPITAL  WANT THAT A MAJORITY WILL MAKE MONEY THIS WAY, AS THEY WOULD PREFER THAT THEY WORK IN THEIR COMPANIES FOR THEM. ONLY IN SPECIAL CONTINGENCIES AND SITUATIONS SOMETHING LIKE THIS WOULD BE ETHICAL. AND IN PARTICULAR A HIGHER MORALITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT SUCH A PRACTICE, WOULD BE PROVABLE WITH COLLECTIVELY BENEVOLENT DEEDS FROM A POSSIBLE SURPLUS OF SUCH MONEY!


THE MAIN SUCCESFUL IDEAS OF THIS POPULARIZED BOOKS MAINLY FOR ECONOMISTS AND INMTELLIGENT INVESTORS ARE BASED ON THE SUCCESFUL PRACTICE FOR DECADES OF THE NEXT 3 FAMOUS AUTHORS

1) CHUCH HUGHES AN AEROPLANE PILOT WHO MADE 4,600$ TO 460000$ IN 2 YEARS (ABOUT 20% PER MONTH ) MANY YEARS  AGO  AND THEN TO MILLIONS  . HE THEN MADE 18 MORE MILLIONS DURING THE FINACIAL CRISIS FOR OTHER FRIENDS AND FOLLOWERS GIVING THEM THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FREE BASIC INCOME AND WEALTH MAKING. HE IS UTILIZING MAINLY OPTIONS ON STOCKS WITH IN THE MONEY DEBIT BULL SPREADS WHICH ESSENTIALLY IS GAINING FROM THE TIME VALUE OF THE OPTIONS PRICES DURING A SHORT TERM PERIOD WHICH IS ANAVOIDABLY MORE OR LESS STATIONARY AND HAS ALSO A SLIGHT SHIFTING OF THE SHORT TERM SPOT MARKET DUE TO THE LONG TERM UP TREND. It seems that the frequence for each instrument that someone can find such profitable opportunities at a high succes rate of more than 85% ,  of "in the money bull call spreads" is high , probably more than 50% of the time. 

2) BILL WILLIAMS A UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR OF PSHYCHOLOGY WHO AGAIN FOR DECADES HAS A CONSISTENT TRADING HISTORY AND MADE ALIVING FROM IT.  HE  IS AUTHOR OF BOOKS DESCRIBING HOW HE IS DOING IT. HE IS MAINLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SHORT TERM ACTIO-REACTION OF THE MARKETS . IT IS THUS MAINLY A SHORT TERM SYSTEM WITH LITTLE INITIAL FUNDS BASED ON THE SHORT TERM STATIONARITY OF THE MARKETS  BUT ALSO  SLIGHT SHIFT INHERITED FROM THE LONG TERM TREND OF THE  MARKETS.

THE PARETO RULE WOULD GIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM OF TRANSACTIONS OF BILL WILLIAMS HERE THAT IT IS BETTER TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHERE RARELY FOR EACH INSTRUMENT IT GIVE AN OPPORUTNITY BUT WHEN IT DOES IT REQUIRES A SIMPLE STEROTYPIC RESPONCE AND ACTION AND IT IS MORE THAN 85% SUCCESFUL THAN TO HAVE A SYSTEM WHERE IT GIVES OPPORTUNITIES FOR EACH INSTRUMENT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME AND THE REQUIRED ACTION IS COMPLICATED DEPENDED O THE SITUATION WITH A LOW SUCCESS RATE SAY OF 55%. 


3) MICHAEL LEBOEUF A UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR IN ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT WHO IS MAKING A LIVING AFTER RETIRING FROM THE UNIVERSITY WORK WITH A 1 MILLION PORTFOLIO AND WHO IS UTILIZING SOLELY THE LONG TERM OF THE MARKETS (ABOUT 10% ANNUALLY) . HE IS A BUY-AND-HOLDER AND HE ONLY ADJUST ANNUALLY HIS  PORTFOLIO APPLYING THE CONSTANT PERCENTAGES RULE OF ABOUT 1/3 OFTHE MONEY IN CASH AND THE BANKS AND 2/3 IN THE STOCK EXCHANGES. 
IT IS A SYSTEM REQUIRING AT LEAST 1 MILLION INITIAL CAPITAL IT DOES NOT REQUIRE ACTION BUT ONLY ONCE PER YEAR AND IS BASED ONTHE LONG TERM TREND OFTHE MARKETS.

4) MY OWN EXPERIENCE  AMONG AT LEAT 2 DECADES AND SUCCESSFUL PRACTICE  WHICH IS AN ALTERNATION  OF THE METHODS OF CHUCK HUGHES AND BILL WILLIAMS FOR SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE MARKETS AS THEY REQUIRE LITTLE INITIAL FUNDS. 

What is Rainbow Trading or statistical risk management through systems of transactions in the capital and inter-bank markets?


There is a thin line that separates business and investments as gambling that destroys the human spirit from business and investments as applications of scientific statistical knowledge under general principles that protects and reinforces the human spirit. This book contributes to see the difference and put the investors from the side of protected human spirit.

Probably the best instantaneous rewarding "why?", of manual trading is the joy and satisfaction in playing,  among the situations of higher or lower uncertainty of what will happen in the global economy and markets, so as to  plan and conduct a strategy that lets you know on occasions what will happen with acceptable low uncertainty.




The main idea of this blog is to simplify from the focus to thousands of systems and indicators , in to focus of a small number of deeper financial (ans social psychology behavior and ) laws.

It is like shifting from the Prolemy's Astronomy, to Newton's celestial bodies dynamics.
During the last 12 years I have not read a single system or robot, or indicator that its gains or losses cannot be fully or more or less  explained with the demand-supply and price action laws that I present here.
Goal:
Responsible freedom of self-determination and becoming truly self-confident and free to unconditionally be responsible for one's self, without being coerced to accept some higher authority.


This book is dedicated to the traders that are also scientists, that trust their mind as well as their guts, with the hope that it will protect them from losing their funds, make them understand the risks, and what is predictable on occasions in the markets. This book does not guarantee any successful trading result to those that may risk their money, because the human environment we live is full of "negative wind of wills" which may make the bets trained traders or scientists with a good know-how or trading system lose. (See post 62) The over all positivity or negativity of intentions we live in cannot be overcome simple by a good know-how. If this book helps the traders that are also scientists to keep a serene and clear mind about what they can and what they cannot do, or if it will help them create systematically winning  trading  it will would be a great part of its goal.

Most  traders fail in creating a long term monthly income staring  from small amounts of money. This is a most difficult path to financial freedom. 
There are plenty many reasons, of course that would make  manual trader to fail in trying systematic profits in capital markets, stock exchanges, forex etc.  The fact is nevertheless that the majority of traders fail in the long run when trying systematic profits that from little only money would create fast capitalization and a reliable monthly income, and this is exactly what the social system wants! 

it is not probable that automated trading would do so (see also post 6) . There is no serious social will to develop software for automated trading for fast capitalization and income! On the contrary the existing trading platforms, the last two decades still have serious drawbacks.  The possible development of a sufficient reliable software that would create in a fast way capitalization starting from very few money, and thus creating a monthly income for people ,even if it is possible, is at a deeper consideration, undesired from the economic system, itself which wants people to work for the business of those who have the capital, and thus control them  based on their need to survive. If such a software was to be developed, then this would give  access  to financial freedom to the majority, which we know is not in the intentions of the capital oligarchy than controls the economic system. And therefore a trader is left alone to develop such a system, which sincerely speaking is not really feasible, by one person only. Neither a collective open source volunteered development of such a software is really supported by the financial system.

 Therefore we go back to simplicity and simple only mainly manual practices that a single trader can do (here a scientist too) , that although simple are not probable for the majority of the people!



0) The reasons of failure in trading according to their power of effect may be classified to 
0.1) SOCIAL REASONS The possible development of a sufficient reliable trading system, manual or automated  that would create in a fast way capitalization starting from very few money, and thus creating a monthly income for people ,even if it is possible, is at a deeper consideration, undesired from the economic system itself!  As the economic system wants people to work for the business of those who have the capital, and thus control them  based on their need to survive. If such a software or manual trading system was to be developed and be easy to apply by the majority of the people, then this would give  access  to financial freedom to the majority (something like a guaranteed minimum income or subsidy for survival)  , which we know is not in the intentions of the capital oligarchy than controls the economic system. The awareness that the economic system is not much favorable for such possibilities is apparent e.g. in the writings of Bill Williams who has succeed to do it as "The alligator" and some times as "The gremlin." It is the old idea that the treasure (here of financial freedom) is guarded my a fierce and almost unbeatable dragon. A friend of mine, who is a professor and at the same time a successful trader, used to tell me that wanting to trade at the beginning  is like wanting to cross a field full of mines without any tool to detect them. Some how one could say that this is the usual situation with all businessmen  that want to create a capital. Nevertheless , judging from the scarcity of individuals who have succeeded in creating a reliable long term income, starting with a small amount of money though capitalization in the capital markets, compared to those that did it with ordinary real business, we conclude this this here is by far more difficult. On the other hand the fact that such a trading is after all capitalization as in many other types of business, is also an encouraging thought , because although business with successful and fast capitalization are not easy, they are not also impossible. 

0.2) The intellectual reasons. Not statistical valid thinking about random quantities in the markets, and not aligning with the scientific collective consensus, that may allow them to utilize the collective work of many thinkers. Many traders do not know how to think about random or half random quantities, unless they are educated in statistics and furthermore are willing to apply the statistical scientific mode of thinking. At this point we may also remark on the other hand ,that the science of applied statistics has not created a collective will to create fast capitalization in the capital markets, that would create income starting with a small amount of funds. In fact most scientists might suggest to avoid it. Therefore at this any trader is in his own. The successful trading is based on appropriate successful beliefs, and new habits of beliefs, and such a system of beliefs is rarely found as rare are the ones that have succeeded. But the scientific consensus of valid statistics, may hep on that. 
0.3) Psychological reasons. This is a very strong factor of failing, as most people are emotionally oriented. The successful trading as we said, is based on appropriate successful beliefs and habits of new beliefs, and such a system of beliefs is rarely found as rare are the ones that have succeeded systematically in trading. As the beliefs of a trader are directly affected by the impersonal beliefs, or beliefs of people of their environment, traders face a hard time creating the right beliefs and therefore the right emotions about trading. Furthermore the false beliefs of the majority of traders that are losing, either in their environment or even in the internet, is highly probable that will affect them, and make them lose too. Such false collective beliefs of the majority of the losing traders are often impersonal and written in many books of technical analysis, and have become so strong that the trader that joints and learns from the collective of other traders cannot but become a victim of them. In addition to that the close human environment of the trader may be hostile and obstructing to the desire of the trader to succeed and so as to allow  the trader to have the successful beliefs, even if the trader never talks about them.  It may take years for some people to change the emotional and belief habits as correlated  with their open positions and the market moves. E.g. too many traders refuse to control the loss of a trade, at the worst case scenario for each trade, to be under 6% or under 2% , even when the percentage of their winning trades is as low as 51%-56%. They copy buy-and-hold investor that when they lose, they do not sell but they wait for the market to change direction. They find it very restrictive to bound loses to only 2% or 3%, and are based too much on the belief of their success in forecasting. They claim that by putting a tight stop loss,  they  will be losing almost always. There are many other examples where their habits of feelings and beliefs lead them systematically to loses.  Everybody knows how difficult is to change deeply rooted habits and beliefs. Just ask systematic smokers to give up smoking, or fat people to lose weight and become slim and one will also understand why it is difficult to practice successful trading. The more personal the trader takes his trading at the beginning (and this is the case because they are dealing usually with their own money) the more difficult it is to make it successful!  Some times their emotional habits are so inverse, that when they discover the trading that is winning in the long run,they discover also that it is not fun at all for every single trade, and emotionally it  is not even pleasant to proceed (apart from the final long term profit) ! The awareness that our sense of psychology and the world is often against us,   is apparent e.g. in the writings of Bill Williams, who has succeed to do be a winning trader, under the terms e.g.  like "The gremlins, the little devils".

0.4) Physical activities reasons. Trading which is intraday, requires many hours during the day, and  this is on often feasible to working people. Even daily trading which requires not more than half an hour per day, is already a strict demand of consistency, which for many people is not feasible. Furthermore requirements of sufficient good computer and internet support and even  , some funds to start , while at the same time one has a sufficient permanent income from a daily job is not the privilege of everybody. 

This book tries to deal with these difficulties, for the case of a trader who is also a scientists or even better a statistician or mathematician.





THE TOP 6 FACTORS OF ATTENTION IN MANUAL TRADING ARE

1) NEVER USE ALL YOUR FUNDS FOR TRADING.  DIVIDE THEM TO TRADING AND NON-TRADING FUNDS BY THE RATIO f=R/a^2 RULE (see below for this ratio or in posts 3,13,33). THE DIVISION OF FUNDS AT EACH PERIOD IS ADJUSTED TO CONFORM WITH  THIS PERCENTAGE RATIO. NEVER WITHDRAW PER PERIOD FROM THE NON-TRADING FUNDS MORE THAN HALF OF THE AVERAGE PROFITS OF THE TRADING FUNDS PER PERIOD. This division and adjustment of the funds has been applied for many years in buy and hold investments by  professor Michael LeBoeuf. 

2)  THE ONLY CERTAINTY, WHILE TRADING IS ALSO OUR  FIRST PRIORITY: WE MAY DETERMINE THAT OUR LOSSES AT EACH POSITION WILL NOT BE LARGER THAN A SPECIFIED PERCENTAGE DEFINED BY THE KELLY CRITERION (see  posts 3, 13, 33)

3) FOCUS ON MACROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS LIKE  STOCK INDEXES WITH PERMANENT STRONG LONG TERM TREND, OR AT LEAST STRONG AND CLEAR SEASONAL TREND, even if you want to trade at short time scales. (e.g. of the American Economy which is young and strong and indexes like Dow Jones, SnP500, Nasdaq etc).The statistical quantities need to me measured are the price position in the channel around the average, the velocity (1st derivative) and the acceleration-deceleration (2nd derivative), which is done as statistical quantities by a hypothesis test or confidence interval. The support-resistance levels can be measured also by action-volume histograms.  The measurements are done with convenient indicators, and can also define in a statistically valid way, not only , the channels , and Eliot-waves but also the spikes. 

4) FOR VERY LOW RISK AT OPENING POSITIONS ON THE PREVIOUS INDEXES WITH PERMANENT STRONG TREND, OPEN BETTING UPWARDS, AT TERMINAL SPIKES AGAINST THE TREND. This is the Bill Williams technique. 

5) READ THE NEWS AND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS BUT THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PATTERNS OF THE MARKET REQUIRES THAT IT IS DONE IN MANY SUCCESSIVE TIME FRAMES CHARTS. This is a basic recommendation by Alexander Elder, which, by now, it is a common knowledge to traders


6) BE FLEXIBLE IN RESPONDING TO THE MARKET AND DO NOT HESITATE TO FOLLOW PROMPTLY ANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES OF THE TREND OF THE MARKET, ALWAYS WITH GRADUAL BUILD OF THE POSITION. (This is called by Bill Williams his psychological Holy Grail in trading)




ABOUT THE PSYCHOLOGY OF ORGANIZED THINKING (By Andrew Carnegie)

Here is what Andrew Carnegie says about organized thinking in the book( "The wisdom of Andrew Carnegie as told to Napoleon Hill " ):

The benefits of organized thinking are so numerous that it is difficult to decide where to begin or where to stop, but these are some of the more obvious advantages of this habit:

1) Organized thinking enables one to become the master of his own mind. This he accomplishes by training his faculty of will to control his emotions, turning them on and off as the occasion may require.

2) Organized thinking forces one to work with definiteness of purpose , thereby enabling him to set up a habit that prohibits procrastination. Organized thinking is based on the controlled formation of thinking habits that are also related with emotional and action habits. From a certain perspective Self-discipline and organized thinking are synonymous!

3) It develops the habit of working and cooperating in groups with other people with definite plans instead of blundering ahead by the hit or miss method.

4) It enables one to stimulate the subconscious mind to greater action and more ready response, in the attainment of desired ends, instead of allowing the subconscious mind to respond to the "tramp" thoughts and destructive influences of one.s environment. 

5) It develops self-reliance

6) It gives one the benefit of the knowledge , experience and education of others, through the medium of Alliance of Group Mind, which is an important medium to coordinate group will and also invoke the Collective Infinite Intelligence, which has been used by all able thinkers. Organized thinking attracts energies and power that is channeled in the organized activities, while otherwise it would be a dangerous "mental explosive". 

7) It enables one to convert his efforts on to greater material resources , larger income and wealth and by capitalization eventually to financial freedom. Because organized mind can produce more than one that is not organized.

8) It develops the habit of accurate analysis, through which one may find the solution to his problems, instead of worrying over them.

9) It aids in maintaining sound health, because mind power that is organized and directed towards the attainment of both private and social worthy and desirable good goals, it attracts and involves positive emotions and has no time to be wasted in connection with self-pity or imaginary ailments. Idle minds for a long time, tend to develop ailing bodies.

10) Last but not least, organized thinking , as it functions intensely but also knows how to periodically relax and seas activities , leads to peace of mind and that form of permanent happiness which is known only to the man that can keep his mind fully occupied.





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http://www.bookstars.gr/User/SearchResult.aspx?cid=g3zOHZuXk6Q=&key=Algorithmic%20trading




REMARK 
In some posts of the blog are referred some rates of return in the manual trading , which may seem too high and extravagant and too good to be to be true.  E.g. in post 44. It must be declared in advance that they are high because the are for a limited time interval and not continuously and after accepting a very significant maximal draw down percentage. But the policy to state them  in such a mode, is so as to be a pain killer and overcome the emotional pessimism of the unavoidable failure-trades due to the high risk in manual trading. All the rates of return  nevertheless of automated trading are absolutely as the are stated for the time horizons measured and the acceptable maximal  draw down percentage.



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