Planet and star spins system: An hybrid (half manual and half automated) ubiquitous trading system
Planet and star spins system (here called google car) is fully automated strategy only during the
day, while at the end of the day ( when all bank sessions close) there is
manual re-assessment of the market’s direction and risk and from its results the automations is re-directed and re-set how it will run during the next day.
It applies to 15
currency cross-rate that are combinations of the 7 major
economies and their currencies: In order of magnitude are
US>EU>JPY>GBP>CAD>AUD>CHF.
The 15 pairs in the order of priority that are scanned are :
EURUSD, EURJPY,USDJPY, EURGBP,GBPUSD,GBPJPY, EURCAD,
USDCAD,EURAUD,AUDUSD,EURCHF,USDCHF,CADJPY,AUDJPY,CHFJPY.
There
are two components in this strategy a) The automated part that is running
during the day b) The manual part of assessing the market’s direction and risk
at the end of the day.
The
automated part a) is based on a known
optimal mathematical procedure of how to adjust continuously the positions sizes during a rather constant trend so as to minimize the
risk and maximize the accumulated profits at the end of the day. It is an intra-day small scale equivalent of the
balance of non-invested funds and
invested funds that Warren Buffett is known to apply quarterly and annually in
his investments.
The
manual part b) is based on careful measurements and pattern
recognition assessment of the momentum, deceleration of momentum, volumes,
phase and amplitudes of movements on
characteristic periodicities of the markets, like sessions, day-night, month
and quarter. In particular it is
followed the methods of Bill Williams as written in his books, of a more than
50 years successful manual trading. For more on its ideas in
http://rainbowquotes.blogspot.com
With risk settings of a) 0.5% of the funds risked per trade and b) 3% risked on all open
positions (floating) the maximum sequential draw down per year, is less than
5%, while the average annual return more than 70%. About 85% of the trades are winning. Approximately 33% of the days
are days with trades, in which case 6
or more trades are executed during the day with average duration of about
5 hours.
Remark: This next of the post was not meant for the reader to understand. It is just an easy accessible back up of notes, for me, when, I am away and have forgotten my notebook.
0. Once per day at the end of the day spend no more than 30 minutes to detect the road and decide the driving. The relevant resonance of the corresponding rainbow frequency periods are the 3 major (like Schumpeter's synthesis): Planet spin, Sun spin (half), and planet orbital period (quarter subharmonic). The planet-spin and star-spin influence is traded as wave-pattern based system, while the planet-orbital or seasonal effect as trend-pattern based system. Planet orbital PO: SlowHMA, Sun spin SP:FastHMA, SlowOLS, Planet spin PP: ZZ-trend, midOLS, medianLines, ZZ-vector. But mainly the engine here is the Planet Spin . This was the success rhythm for Andrew Carnegie, Anthony Robbins, Brian Tracy, and many other multi-millionaires and billionaires. Enjoy the richness of the day, and act as if you plan to live for ever. Every day, in every way, I become better and better. We connect with the cosmic and personal habitforce and a mutually benevolent win-win way.
The paragraph 10 describes a 100% automated simplification of the systems, as wave-pattern based systems (not as a trend-pattern based systems like the seasonal effect). In the other paragraphs there is descripion of the systems as trend-pattern based systems.
The list of pairs in order of priority (based on the 7 major economies ordered by size EU>US>JPY>GBP>CAD>AUD>CHF.) are 17 and as as follows: XAUUSD, XAGUSD, EURUSD,EURJPY,USDJPY,EURGBP,GBPUSD,GBPJPY,EURCAD,USDCAD,EURAUD,AUDUSD,EURCHF,USDCHF,CADJPY,AUDJPY,CHFJPY.
Outer excursions start with refraction, while inner with reflection. Outer are conceived as spikes and trends,while inner as spikes, trends, waves and stationarities.All the action is structured in the 3 levels PO,SP,PP. There are SP inner-outer and PP inner-outer. The faster rythm of violet as sessional cycle is also utilized, and is both cosmic (helioseismology) and human (session). There is a corresponding isomorphic trading, to this described below, which is based not on the planet spin, but on the sun spin (cycle of monthly period). The trends there, are more clear whith less noise, but the opportunities significantly more rare. Of course when they exist have number one priority.
Here we describe the trading based on the planet spin, which when scanned on all instruments give at least 33% of the days triggered excusrions and trades. That is why I call the present system Carpe Diem too.
The continuation inner excursions can be defined best by the zigzag below and up of the Hullband envelope and ols-mid, in the direction that the ols-channel gives, so as to escape of loss of opportunities that the false pitchfork deceleration gives. The pitchfork-channel is best for reversal breakout outer excursions that we may exit with sar-bot trailout or HMA-cross bot stop.As the ZZ gives also a horizontal break-out level, besides the skew Pitchfork break-out level, we take the earliest among the two as the true trigger. The deceleration is best utilized as indication to exit an expedition trend. As second priority it is utilized to define an earlier expedition reversal than the above two triggers (ZZ and Pitchfork). Thus once deceleration appears, especilally in the background template, we may consider it is already reversed. Besides the Pitchfork for a (straight line) develeration detection, there is also the last median (green) line compared to a last S/R way to define deceleration. Especially the first inner (posterior) excursion of an expedition-trend (Ellior order=2) , that are called Blows, are usually spikes (as the Lightning are too) and deserve higher leverage than all the other excursions, because they have less maturity-deceleration risk, and are intense. Actually a safe and excellent subsytem can be defined that trades only the Blows (2nd spike of a spike).
The google car is half driven automatically and half driven manually:
The paragraph 10 describes a 100% automated simplification of the systems, as wave-pattern based systems (not as a trend-pattern based systems like the seasonal effect). In the other paragraphs there is descripion of the systems as trend-pattern based systems.
The list of pairs in order of priority (based on the 7 major economies ordered by size EU>US>JPY>GBP>CAD>AUD>CHF.) are 17 and as as follows: XAUUSD, XAGUSD, EURUSD,EURJPY,USDJPY,EURGBP,GBPUSD,GBPJPY,EURCAD,USDCAD,EURAUD,AUDUSD,EURCHF,USDCHF,CADJPY,AUDJPY,CHFJPY.
In short all diagnostics given the 3 fixed frequencies as above are a) Select by resonance of 2 neighbouring of the above 3 basic frequencies a clear stream (expedition) b) read the oscillation phase c) read the deceleration starting measuring from the Elliot no 0 wave of the stream d) read the amplitudes through the support-resistance lines. (acronym E-PDA). The clear stream or expedition after resonance, the starting 0 Elliot wave , the deceleration critical lines, and the S/R amplitude levels is the Quartet of significant key critical detections, while it is not so much significant the duality of the sign of the trend. When observing the background d1-template too, we just require that it is not a clear detection of the opposite direction. It can be though neutral or non-clear detection for forecasting. Only at xdds speed we do require that the background is as 1st priority lightning or as 2nd priority just clear detection of parallel direction. Thus there is a 2nd order lexicographic ordering of opportunities, or 2 speeds system: High xdds speed and low xmds speed system. And in the xdds speed, the opportunities are also a pair lexicographic order, with 1st term the slow d1-template and 2nd term the fast h1-template. SlowHMA parallel background have priority then L lightning or outer excursions have priority to Bi or inner excursions and lastly economy larger size have priority, in cases of equal quality opportunities. Among slowHMA parallel in D1 and slowHMA parallel in H1 we prefer the fast H1 scale to be so. The slowHMA condition is assessed not only by its color-derivative but mainly by the crossing motion of the prices compared to the slowHMA. When scanning D1 daily, we also scan H1, so as to have complete daily info.We remember that the OLS-channel detects of we are at flat ranging/waving, or trend/spike.
If we are at ols-flat ranging/waving channel the Elliot Orders and PF-trend does not apply.
When trading whole H1-expeditions rather than just H1-excursions, the D1-background is more important, as H1-expeditions are D1-excursions. In such a case to select good H1-expeditions we look for a) clear trend pattern at D1 b) D1-spike- excursion c) Low even Elliot order at D1 d) Non-flat OLS channel at D1 e) if trading odd elliot orders at D1, we prefer to stop at low H1-Elliot orders in H1 e.g. 2 (blows) or 4 f) The H1-expedition starts after an exhaustion H1-spike
If we are at ols-flat ranging/waving channel the Elliot Orders and PF-trend does not apply.
When trading whole H1-expeditions rather than just H1-excursions, the D1-background is more important, as H1-expeditions are D1-excursions. In such a case to select good H1-expeditions we look for a) clear trend pattern at D1 b) D1-spike- excursion c) Low even Elliot order at D1 d) Non-flat OLS channel at D1 e) if trading odd elliot orders at D1, we prefer to stop at low H1-Elliot orders in H1 e.g. 2 (blows) or 4 f) The H1-expedition starts after an exhaustion H1-spike
Outer excursions start with refraction, while inner with reflection. Outer are conceived as spikes and trends,while inner as spikes, trends, waves and stationarities.All the action is structured in the 3 levels PO,SP,PP. There are SP inner-outer and PP inner-outer. The faster rythm of violet as sessional cycle is also utilized, and is both cosmic (helioseismology) and human (session). There is a corresponding isomorphic trading, to this described below, which is based not on the planet spin, but on the sun spin (cycle of monthly period). The trends there, are more clear whith less noise, but the opportunities significantly more rare. Of course when they exist have number one priority.
Here we describe the trading based on the planet spin, which when scanned on all instruments give at least 33% of the days triggered excusrions and trades. That is why I call the present system Carpe Diem too.
The continuation inner excursions can be defined best by the zigzag below and up of the Hullband envelope and ols-mid, in the direction that the ols-channel gives, so as to escape of loss of opportunities that the false pitchfork deceleration gives. The pitchfork-channel is best for reversal breakout outer excursions that we may exit with sar-bot trailout or HMA-cross bot stop.As the ZZ gives also a horizontal break-out level, besides the skew Pitchfork break-out level, we take the earliest among the two as the true trigger. The deceleration is best utilized as indication to exit an expedition trend. As second priority it is utilized to define an earlier expedition reversal than the above two triggers (ZZ and Pitchfork). Thus once deceleration appears, especilally in the background template, we may consider it is already reversed. Besides the Pitchfork for a (straight line) develeration detection, there is also the last median (green) line compared to a last S/R way to define deceleration. Especially the first inner (posterior) excursion of an expedition-trend (Ellior order=2) , that are called Blows, are usually spikes (as the Lightning are too) and deserve higher leverage than all the other excursions, because they have less maturity-deceleration risk, and are intense. Actually a safe and excellent subsytem can be defined that trades only the Blows (2nd spike of a spike).
The google car is half driven automatically and half driven manually:
1. From the 4 price patterns, the waves and stationarities is prefered to be traded not posterior-internally, but prior-externally as breakouts. Of course we do trade them internally too at the central 1/3 and is prefered to be trade only in one of the two directions. These two patterns are detected by the inconsistency of the spikes or by direct inspection on the zz-channel and its Darvas zones by OLS channels (best method), or by the aligator-like triplet of HMA's or by the absolute levels (e.g. +-10) of the average speed oscillator. Next detect the phase as density line either a) reversal (outer, counter-trend or reaction, negative feedback) case or b) continuation (inner, trend-following, momentum conservation, positive feedback) by the Babson's middle lines forecast (and if they are of sufficient amplitude detected by ending outside the Hullband channel) , to set triggers for the google car to run an excursion. Both horizontal and skew density lines are considered. The discrimination to set outer or inner excursions is prior to any decision about direction of the excursion. Only at the micro-pyramiding on the grid of the automated vehicle the continuation excursions are also outer . Inner and outer excursion may have different EA settings. Both for outer and inner excursions the BM of all 3 trends is significant. In other words even for inner excursions the slowHMA is significant. But as the outer are after the action-reaction law, only quite slower momentum matters for them.
Forward exits are by NCE , (SO,) CL in this order, and backwards exits as NCE , (SO,) CL in this order, where NCE is defined by the critical line that decides as not supporting anymore the initial anticipation, while SO, and CL by the same or by the maximum acceptable MDD risk per excursion, which ever comes first. VL mode has quadratic increase for profits while only linear increase for losses, thus it has less risk than VLS mode which is symmetric quadratic. So we prefer it. The NH mode with CL may have again less risk. We may conduct kind of VLS mode as we reset trigger lines next day, within the VL mode by small moving entry zone radius, but we do not prefer it as it is difficult to calculate the MDD risk. We almost always set lines so that we have a reading of the MDD per excursion, risk value. A usual conservative MDD risk per trade is 1%-3% and per excursion is around 6%. It is good for the long term survival to control in an absolute way the MDD risk per excursion, while leave the equity aggregate MDD risk to the consistency of the other 6 risk metrics. We prefer to set triggers so that the Forwards (CL-S)>=Backwards(S-CL). Both in outer and inner excursions the backwards and forwrads |CL-S| is defined by the ZZ-channel width N(n), as in turtle trading channel pyramiding N(n)/2, stoploss 2N(n) and trailing N(n/2).Key psychological levels (the closest 00's or 50's to 1N(n)) are prefered, and utilized.
Forward exits are by NCE , (SO,) CL in this order, and backwards exits as NCE , (SO,) CL in this order, where NCE is defined by the critical line that decides as not supporting anymore the initial anticipation, while SO, and CL by the same or by the maximum acceptable MDD risk per excursion, which ever comes first. VL mode has quadratic increase for profits while only linear increase for losses, thus it has less risk than VLS mode which is symmetric quadratic. So we prefer it. The NH mode with CL may have again less risk. We may conduct kind of VLS mode as we reset trigger lines next day, within the VL mode by small moving entry zone radius, but we do not prefer it as it is difficult to calculate the MDD risk. We almost always set lines so that we have a reading of the MDD per excursion, risk value. A usual conservative MDD risk per trade is 1%-3% and per excursion is around 6%. It is good for the long term survival to control in an absolute way the MDD risk per excursion, while leave the equity aggregate MDD risk to the consistency of the other 6 risk metrics. We prefer to set triggers so that the Forwards (CL-S)>=Backwards(S-CL). Both in outer and inner excursions the backwards and forwrads |CL-S| is defined by the ZZ-channel width N(n), as in turtle trading channel pyramiding N(n)/2, stoploss 2N(n) and trailing N(n/2).Key psychological levels (the closest 00's or 50's to 1N(n)) are prefered, and utilized.
2. The direction is defined not by the band-momentum sign (score 2), but mainly by the momentum-deceleration after the 3 detectors zz-channel,pitchfork, spike-oscillator . If the BM score is 0, we may allow an outer excursion only during a lightning. In special cases we may set triggers for excursions in both directions.We anticipate only favorable direction zz-vectors as excursion paths.
3. After successful excursions we avoid starting a new one if the volatility is decreasing, unless a lightning is incubated, the volatility amplitude is low, and is suggested by a divergence and deceleration in zz-channel, pitchfork, and spikes, in which case the excursion will be at opposite direction to the previous. If no clear deceleration pattern in the 3 detectors, it is a gray-zone and we do nothing.
4. After successful excursions we avoid starting a new outer (reversal) one, if the maturity (Elliot order) is low. But we may start an inner (continuation) at odd ZZEll(r) and good other risk metrics. We do so only if the momentum is clear and not decelerating in the 3 detectors zz-channel, pitchfork, and spikes. Otherwise it is classified as grey-zone case and we do nothing. Inner excursions may be triggered and exited also based on equal Fibonacci retracements and extensions.
5. We may search with the rainbow table 4, by short listing according to GNP size,to find major pairs with maximum sum risk score 5 (or simply above the water surface), and enter the best risk score pair after priority short listing. For outer (reversal, Lightnings) excursions we look for high Ell(r), and the anticipated, not current, BM score is prefered to be above 3, and for appropriate phase of the Fast StOsc (turtle breakout) and ZZtrend sign. Fibo retracements of the last forward zz-vector can be used for outer exc. triggers too. For inner excursions, we look for odd ZZEll(r) (in descending preference order) and the BM score is prefered above 3, or looking for matching of the odd ZZElliot sign , plus all 3 BM signs and the fastStOsc phase. Inner excursions may be triggered and exited also based on equal Fibonacci retracements and extensions of the last forward zz-vector. A very good practice is to select only the ZZ-vectors that are sessional spikes (violet rythm) , to trade the fibo continuation after retrace, or blow. (They are lightings in some faster scale, but not of the zz-trend at h1 always; sometimes they have |ZZEll(r)|=1 but may have also higher Elliot order.). The way to detect them is, best through the spectral_prob_oscillator with moment >1, or also through the ATR_ratio with exponent. By utilizing Andrew's PF and median lines method, on the retrace of the spike we may exit the excursion at the middle line as safer and better method than Fibo. (principle of maximum likelihood). We may also take PF reversal-breakouts at the trigger trend line, if they are spikes too (lightning), as external excursions. Even the spikes themselves and not their continuation can be traded with the median line method, if the anticipated median line TP is adequate at the time of detecting it as spike. This practice will automatically make it a system based on combination of spike-wave-trend rather than simply trends or stationarities. And sessional spikes are almost periodic and reliable, requiring partly an automation to follow them. Their reliabilty comes from a combination of a) the law of rhythms (mainly daily and sessional) , b) law of polarity (leading to the 4 price patterns) ,c) law of action (mainly the part about acceleration) , d) law of attraction (as leading to pareto distribution and position size escalation) e) law of causality and randomness (leading to the optimal adjustments).
Another simpler alternative is to start an excursion based on the band score of all the 5 trends (spike, zz-vector, zz-channel, fast HMA, slow HMA) in two main methods a) prior excursions, (outer, reversal, counter-trend) either by horizontal S/R trigger lines at decelerating zz-channels as anticipated to reverse, or by skew trigger lines of zz-vectors or pitchfork, anticipated to reverse, b) posterior excursions, (inner, trend continuation) either at the time of a spike and if price is not far away from the tp-trigger line, or early enough in a zz-vector before the mid golden line. Always the worse scenario is the safe hedge at the ZZ-channel reversal at an horizontal S/R (or pitchfork triggerline) while the best scenario is to end the excursion either at the tp-line or s/r-line of a zz-vector, or at best opportunity when the ZZ-channel is decelerating or at the 1st spikes divergence or when the pitchfork is at reversal which ever comes 1st. When at initiation of a new ZZ-channel trend a counter spike appears, it counts as divergence. Count spike divergences not over their peak but over the zz-channel accelerations. Always search for reasons to set NextCloseExit. Very tight NextCloseExits are not disasters. When the ZZ-channel is taken as decision guide, we may let the excursion run in both forwards and backwards zz-vectors, till the above expirations. Therefore they are longer excursions lasting more than one zz-vector. Such runs are called expeditions (streams).If within the direction of an expedition (stream) we trade only excursions for even Ellior order zz-vectors, the resutl is even better.The working test hypothesis is the direction based on the negative feedback over the zz-vectors. (As the NF OHLC backtest proves as statisticay dominant) We may take Blow-excursions or just continuation-excursions, during an expedition , but better if they are not of a flat wave or stationarity pattern and only if there is not any sign of deceleration on any of the four detectors, pitcfork, zz-trend last median, spectral oscillator and spikes and if the are of suffcient amplitude detected by being outside the Hullband channel or defined by the phase of the OLS-channels. Especially those that are on spikes or continuation of spikes. If there is no such clear non-decelerating momentum, it is classified as grey-zone case and we do nothing. If during an expedition that has not resumed, the sign of the expedition changes, we apply the hedge-rule, in other words we stop opening, and start opening opposite. Usually by closing one-sided and by opening during thunder (lightning retrace) we resolves easier both directions to a successful closing of all. A more drastic alternative practice, is to close the previous expedition before we enter the new. But in almost all cases with the 1st observable that we should close, we just activate the NextCloseExit, and this is before the sign of the expedition changes. When trading only the Lightnings of the non-moving pitchfork (expeditions) or moving pitchfork (excursions), we may utilize the nearest horizontal S/R for SL-triggerline and double that distance as TP-triggerline, or the symmetric of the middle pitchfork line to the trigger-breakout line as TP-triggerline so that TP>=2SL or TP>=SL.The deceleration in the zz-channel detected by the Pitchfork and the spikes div, and zz-trend ,is the main element after the law of action, that can anticipate and be pro-active to the zz-channel reversal lightnings or spikes. From this point of view (outer, reversal excursions, that are prefered to inner) it is not the momentum conservation which is the significant observable for decisions (trend following) but rather the laws of action-reaction and acceleration.
The 3 core detectors for the outer reversal breakout excursions are the zz-channel trend, the pitchfork, and the spikes. All the other indicators, including the BM, are better utilized only so as to short-list and prioritize when more than one opportunity appears among pairs based on the 3-core detectors. While for the continuation inner excursions the 3 core detectors are the zz-vectors, the Hullband envelop and the ols-channel.
The ZZ-faster trend is the critical from all the 4 in BN (faster,fast, slow, ols). For outer exc. we look for srart-end (transition) of ZZtrend. In both cases we prefer to set triggers so that the Forwards (CL-S)>=Backwards(S-CL). Both in outer and inner excursions the backwards and forwrads |CL-S| is defined by the ZZ-channel width N(n), (Compare with turtle trading where channel pyramiding N(n)/2, stoploss 2N(n) and trailing N(n/2). Or stoploss 0.125*D(n)-0.2*D(n), takeprofit 0.2*D(n)-0.5*D(n) after Donchian width D(n).) The Key psychological levels (the closest 00's or 50's to 1N(n)) are prefered, and utilized.
Another simpler alternative is to start an excursion based on the band score of all the 5 trends (spike, zz-vector, zz-channel, fast HMA, slow HMA) in two main methods a) prior excursions, (outer, reversal, counter-trend) either by horizontal S/R trigger lines at decelerating zz-channels as anticipated to reverse, or by skew trigger lines of zz-vectors or pitchfork, anticipated to reverse, b) posterior excursions, (inner, trend continuation) either at the time of a spike and if price is not far away from the tp-trigger line, or early enough in a zz-vector before the mid golden line. Always the worse scenario is the safe hedge at the ZZ-channel reversal at an horizontal S/R (or pitchfork triggerline) while the best scenario is to end the excursion either at the tp-line or s/r-line of a zz-vector, or at best opportunity when the ZZ-channel is decelerating or at the 1st spikes divergence or when the pitchfork is at reversal which ever comes 1st. When at initiation of a new ZZ-channel trend a counter spike appears, it counts as divergence. Count spike divergences not over their peak but over the zz-channel accelerations. Always search for reasons to set NextCloseExit. Very tight NextCloseExits are not disasters. When the ZZ-channel is taken as decision guide, we may let the excursion run in both forwards and backwards zz-vectors, till the above expirations. Therefore they are longer excursions lasting more than one zz-vector. Such runs are called expeditions (streams).If within the direction of an expedition (stream) we trade only excursions for even Ellior order zz-vectors, the resutl is even better.The working test hypothesis is the direction based on the negative feedback over the zz-vectors. (As the NF OHLC backtest proves as statisticay dominant) We may take Blow-excursions or just continuation-excursions, during an expedition , but better if they are not of a flat wave or stationarity pattern and only if there is not any sign of deceleration on any of the four detectors, pitcfork, zz-trend last median, spectral oscillator and spikes and if the are of suffcient amplitude detected by being outside the Hullband channel or defined by the phase of the OLS-channels. Especially those that are on spikes or continuation of spikes. If there is no such clear non-decelerating momentum, it is classified as grey-zone case and we do nothing. If during an expedition that has not resumed, the sign of the expedition changes, we apply the hedge-rule, in other words we stop opening, and start opening opposite. Usually by closing one-sided and by opening during thunder (lightning retrace) we resolves easier both directions to a successful closing of all. A more drastic alternative practice, is to close the previous expedition before we enter the new. But in almost all cases with the 1st observable that we should close, we just activate the NextCloseExit, and this is before the sign of the expedition changes. When trading only the Lightnings of the non-moving pitchfork (expeditions) or moving pitchfork (excursions), we may utilize the nearest horizontal S/R for SL-triggerline and double that distance as TP-triggerline, or the symmetric of the middle pitchfork line to the trigger-breakout line as TP-triggerline so that TP>=2SL or TP>=SL.The deceleration in the zz-channel detected by the Pitchfork and the spikes div, and zz-trend ,is the main element after the law of action, that can anticipate and be pro-active to the zz-channel reversal lightnings or spikes. From this point of view (outer, reversal excursions, that are prefered to inner) it is not the momentum conservation which is the significant observable for decisions (trend following) but rather the laws of action-reaction and acceleration.
The 3 core detectors for the outer reversal breakout excursions are the zz-channel trend, the pitchfork, and the spikes. All the other indicators, including the BM, are better utilized only so as to short-list and prioritize when more than one opportunity appears among pairs based on the 3-core detectors. While for the continuation inner excursions the 3 core detectors are the zz-vectors, the Hullband envelop and the ols-channel.
The ZZ-faster trend is the critical from all the 4 in BN (faster,fast, slow, ols). For outer exc. we look for srart-end (transition) of ZZtrend. In both cases we prefer to set triggers so that the Forwards (CL-S)>=Backwards(S-CL). Both in outer and inner excursions the backwards and forwrads |CL-S| is defined by the ZZ-channel width N(n), (Compare with turtle trading where channel pyramiding N(n)/2, stoploss 2N(n) and trailing N(n/2). Or stoploss 0.125*D(n)-0.2*D(n), takeprofit 0.2*D(n)-0.5*D(n) after Donchian width D(n).) The Key psychological levels (the closest 00's or 50's to 1N(n)) are prefered, and utilized.
6. Assess all the 6 risk metrics to feel comfortable with and mark the situation with its risk score. Make a fast check for prefered BM4, MDv,Ell, Vlt, Exc2. Prefered: For incr (outer): BM(r)>=2 , MDv(r)>=-1 ,Ell(r)>=1, Vlt(r)>=-1. For rec (inner) : BM(r)>=2, MDv(r)>=0, ZZEll(r)=odd or at most 1, Ell(r)<=3, Vlt(r)>=1. If we monitor the volumes acceleration (240-120-60) too,then the peaks and bottoms, anticipate or confirm zz-channel reversals (expeditions).
7.The usual starting leverage is between 1 and 3, as incidentally is in the average for most enterprises too.
8.We may apply optimal adjustments of tradable funds. This means that we divide the funds in to tradable (e.g. 66%) and non-tradable (33%). All trading is based only on the tradable funds, which in their turn are divided in to usable for margin, and risked e.g. by stop-loss in a trade or excursions, and those reserved for next trades. Then at the start of the trading we mark the equity level E0. For every dE increase from this E0 level or previous level during trading (e.g. dE=5% over all funds) we adjust by in increasing by 2.5% the non-tradable, and decreasing by 2.5% the tradable, and for every dE decrease from E0 or previous level during trading, we adjust by in decreasing by 2.5% the non-tradable, and increasing by 2.5% the tradable so that the ratio 33% of non-tradable funds to all funds, remains approximately constant. This adjustment is simultaneous and independent from the re-investment money management.
7.The usual starting leverage is between 1 and 3, as incidentally is in the average for most enterprises too.
8.We may apply optimal adjustments of tradable funds. This means that we divide the funds in to tradable (e.g. 66%) and non-tradable (33%). All trading is based only on the tradable funds, which in their turn are divided in to usable for margin, and risked e.g. by stop-loss in a trade or excursions, and those reserved for next trades. Then at the start of the trading we mark the equity level E0. For every dE increase from this E0 level or previous level during trading (e.g. dE=5% over all funds) we adjust by in increasing by 2.5% the non-tradable, and decreasing by 2.5% the tradable, and for every dE decrease from E0 or previous level during trading, we adjust by in decreasing by 2.5% the non-tradable, and increasing by 2.5% the tradable so that the ratio 33% of non-tradable funds to all funds, remains approximately constant. This adjustment is simultaneous and independent from the re-investment money management.
9. In special cases we increase manually stepwise the leverage during an excursion.But in general we prefer to let the EA to adjust automatically each trade for its fixed risk percentage (e.g. 2%) and each excursion for its total risk percentage (e.g. 6%). Reversal (outer) excursions may have more leverage and lower MDD risk, compared to continuation (inner) excursions (that can have 2 or 3 times lower leverage). But the 1st of the inner excursions of a new expedition-trend (Elliot order=2) that are called Blows and are usually spikes deserve higher than all excursions leverage (4 to 10 times higher!). The same with initial R-Lightinings that are after an exhaustion spike! A spike that is an exhaustion spike (high Elliot
order) is simply a spike signalling reversal, and its retrace is usually a
Lightning-spike (Elliot order=0). Again the width of the SL defines the leverage after the constant risk percentage rules.When the maturity seems to peak (transition) , the reversal (outer) excursions (in opposite direction) are safer to set than the continuation (inner) excursions. Continuation (inner) excursions are good during the trend not at the end of it.
10.A simple 100% automated version of the star-spin system on all pairs (universal system) utilizes only two scales, the D1 (slow) and H1 (fast). It is a wave-pattern based system (not a trend-pattern based system) that is reinforced with focusing on spikes (reactions of terminal and continuation blows of initial spikes). It concentrates on the detection of hidden monthly cycles (at D1) with its 10-days and 5-days half-period harmonics (at h1) as underlying influence from the sun-spin (1 month) as affecting human financial activities behaviour. The tool is the Quinn and Fernandes algorithm that detects the best sinusoidal frequency on the given horizon, and then a sinusoidal function best fit, as it is done with the Extrapolator indicator. When plotting the sinusoidal function we do it with fractions of the standard error around the best fit curve so as to create a channel, that defines also the channel-phase of the trend, as well as acceleration or deceleration of the curve. This version of the start-spin ubiquitous system requires hourly frequency monitoring.The rules of the trading are the next 6 rules.
1) To open and sustain positions there must be acceleration above a threshold, at the H1-RE (120 hours)
11. The performance of the google car excursions, if they occur every day (e.g. if necessary by a rotating on different pairs or instruments), at a 33% maxDD is at least 1 MDS. It is actually a backoffice fact: 80% succes rate of daily excursions, risking each 6%, and a reward/risk>=1, is already an 1MDS, with 20% standard deviation of it, and with average monthly maxDD 11% +-3%.But if restricted to one only pair or instrument , it is about 0.25 MDS, in other words as that which Bill Williams has succeeded for more than 50 years (3 ads). Of course with monthly reinvestment even a 0.1mds is a 3 ads). Usually nevertheless we prefer keeping it even lower so that maxDD is also less than 33%. Here is a staircase from 0.1MDS to 1 MDS even at one only instrument. : If we want to keep a 90% of the days, trading so that we are at 1 MDS score at 33% MDD, even at one instrument only, we must turn from the Blue (daily) zz-channel expeditions to the violet zz-channel expeditions where the spikes are too. One alternative way is to trade only the zz-vector excursions of the Blue zz-channel , by the median TP , SL, midTPSL lines. But it seems better to utilize a 4h/2h violet h-zz-channel or a PnF-pitchfork of 33ps at M5, and just trade its expeditions as breakout reversals, instead of its zz-vector excursions. The violet spikes alone at least for EURUSD, are statistically reliable as measured for the last 12 years (half Kuznets cycle). Of course all the other conditions, like violet spikes divergence, pitchfork deceleration, BandM etc, are valid to utilize in parallel. This last particular 1 MDS half-manual trading, is of course not feasible as once per day monitoring. If we just trade the Blue ZZ-channel expeditions with all the other conditions at h1 (especially of the deceleration which is more than 80% of the success of the driving, while the resonance and spectral features are less than 20% of the success of the driving. The consideration of the deceleration among the 15 best pairs, makes high rate of success daily excursions e.g. >=88% and given reward/risk=1 and a risk percentage 12% we are already very high at xmds!) , the score seems to be at 0.5 MDS at 33% MDD with GTP gridtrader. But if the previous fast weaver is , withoutGTP, only BE trail 0.2ATR(50D1) and GS=50μps, freq=5min, manual TP, SL and starting lev=1.5 or 1% risk per position and 6% for all positions , it seems that it is of the order of 1MDS at 33% MDD, only with 50% of the days trading, 88% success rate, and AVGproft>=2*AVGL. Compare with the trading of the outer 3 Donchian channels, in the turtle tarding, which if 100% automated, is for the last 5-6 years (Kitchin cycle) a 0.03mds at 33% maxDD. And the part of trading on the trend of violet spikes with early entry, is of 0.05-0.1 mds for the last 5-6 years. The score of E.L's EA spikes trading of the violet spikes, for the last 12 years (half Kuznets cycle) is 0.1-0.2 mds. Also the old countertrend (by 50ps PnF zigzag negative feedback or D1 OHLC s=0 negative feedback or D1 Renko bars negative feedback) daytraing set-n-forget system with 50pSL and 50ps trail (activated at 100ps, 0.1l/1k) for EURUSD (best) has for the last 5.5 years (Kitchin cycle) performance 0.1mds-0.25mds at 33%MDD. This latter system is essentially the median line prediction action-reaction of Babson of the zz-vectors normalized as daily set_n_forget system. It is probably the strongest 100% automated verification of a simplified version of the current manual system. As it is a daytrading system it can be executed also manually with binary options, (a true Day-trade System) in which case the risk has to be 6%-12% and the montecarlo-simulator computes both MaxDD as 15% and a remarkable >=1mds performance! Actually the backoffice simulator gives that if the success rate is at least 90%, the reward/risk 1, and we risk 6% each time, with 50% of the days trading (among all pairs) we get already a 0.5MDS with 4%+-3% mDD. While with 25% only of the days finding opportunity, and risk 20% (success rate 88%, Reward/Risk=1) we already have 1MDS with 8%+-11% mDD. While with 12% risk, success rate 88%, Reward/Risk=1, and 25% inly of the days opportunities we have 0.5MDS, with 5%+-7%mDD. The practice shows that at least 33% of the days, trades are activated and 88% of these days are profitable. Therefore given the above performances of the 100% automated systems, the 0.5mds (at <=33%mDD, on all pairs) of the half-manual is reasonably easier feasibility.The frequency is also that of the achievement of A. Dukas, and also of A. Elder , in other words sessional durations (which over many instruments has also score 1 MDS) and also as trend momentum-deceleration frequency that of the old systems 2-5 SMA and I-master. As the B. Williams records a 0.25mds perforamnce during his 50 years of trading, and optimal adjusting boosts by 7 times, it already gives a score aboce 1MDS for the daily half-automated trading (manual driving of a googlecar). This is partly an automated confirmation of the validity of the half-automated trading in the long run. The above rates have a monthly standard deviation of about 20%-33% of them.
The spikes fully automated system (0.1mds-0.2mds at 33%mDD) is a confirmation of the inner excursions of the half-manual trading, while the OHLC counter trend fully automated system (0.1mds-0.25mds at 33%mDD) is a confirmation of the outer excursions of the half-manual system. If the latter automated system is with conjunction with conditions like ripples trend (ZZ-channel trend), ZZ-vector counter trend and HMA 60D, HMA 20D, the success rate can be up to 90%, while in the manual, the daily excursions may have success rate above 95%!. The two automated systems simulteneously have little correlation (trend-countertrend, other hours) so the combined fully automated effect can be close to at least 0.25mds at 33% mDD.
Of course all resulted rates of return of such a trading, if it were to be recorded by the bank accounting and published, would be figures divided by 100, as the usual maximum nominal leverage in forex is 100. So all this effort would be equivalent to achieve what is the usual annual return of the markets (10%-12%) but with 100 times less variance of the equities curve, so that nominal maximum draw down would not exceed the 0.33%.
Classification of known succesful systems to the 3 basic optimal frequencies
Planet-orbit system: Keith Fitschen's Aberration system (Bollinger bundles 80D) , Bill Wiliams (aligator based pyramiding), Chuck Hughes vertical spreads (50/100 EMA, OnBalanceVolumes).
Star-spin system: Chuck Hughes option purchasing (by Ketler channels 20D), Commodex, Bill Wiliams (Balance line trades), A. Elder system, TradeVantage (neural networks).
Planet-spin system: A. Elder intra-day trading (manual), A. Dukas 2003-trading (Hybrid trading, half manual, half automated) , and the 100% automated ForexGrowthBot, CD-auto, CD-auto-fast, Spike-hunter, Pipjet (scalper) etc. (MT4 Expert Advisors)
In overall , it is not "easy money", neither "get rich quick scheme". And of course it is not a "zero sum game". What you gain is not necessarily lost by some others. Modern money are created from zero (central banks) and are anihilated to zero (central banks again). For some reasons the best of the known traders are not greedy, and they stop the capitalization based on the ability to utilize the funds in a valuable way in society, rather than based on the difficulty to capitalize. The top 10 banks make half or more billion profits annually. We may notice also that there are whole industries in Chine right now (2011) that grow faster, than the above performance rate of asset growth. Make sure that you do a quality conduction of the above protocol, every day. By keeping constant the protocol , an NLP anchor of success is created in the subconsious. At fist in the personal subconsious and then is joined with the great "anchors" of the collective subconsious. NLP-anchors are also almost "biological beliefs" as psycho-neurology uses as terminology. Not changing the protocol means not to extripate the golden tree of success. Enjoy the richness of every day and plan for life and prosperity as if for ever.Then let the Law of large numbers , cosmic and personal habitforce, to work for you so as to get the expected growth.
10.A simple 100% automated version of the star-spin system on all pairs (universal system) utilizes only two scales, the D1 (slow) and H1 (fast). It is a wave-pattern based system (not a trend-pattern based system) that is reinforced with focusing on spikes (reactions of terminal and continuation blows of initial spikes). It concentrates on the detection of hidden monthly cycles (at D1) with its 10-days and 5-days half-period harmonics (at h1) as underlying influence from the sun-spin (1 month) as affecting human financial activities behaviour. The tool is the Quinn and Fernandes algorithm that detects the best sinusoidal frequency on the given horizon, and then a sinusoidal function best fit, as it is done with the Extrapolator indicator. When plotting the sinusoidal function we do it with fractions of the standard error around the best fit curve so as to create a channel, that defines also the channel-phase of the trend, as well as acceleration or deceleration of the curve. This version of the start-spin ubiquitous system requires hourly frequency monitoring.The rules of the trading are the next 6 rules.
1) To open and sustain positions there must be acceleration above a threshold, at the H1-RE (120 hours)
2) To open and sustain
positions there must be acceleration above a threshold, or anticipating deceleration at the H1-RE (240 hours)
3)
To open and sustain positions there must exist acceleration above a threshold at D1-RE (30 days) or
anticipating deceleration, plus the D1-RE channel phase must be backward
compared to the middle line
4)
When positions are allowed to open and are sustained, we apply the standard trading
weaver, which pyramids, anti-pyramids, and trails over a grid.
5)
We close all positions at neutral , when no open positions by 1), 2) and 3) are sustained.
6)
We close positions if the price passes the forward D1-RE channel phase
level.
Alternatively we utilize the next rules to detect D1-excursions as parts of a D1-waving pattern (not D1-trend, by D1-expeditions pattern) :We utilize the next custom indicators :D1-MA(H,5D,simple) cross MA(H,5D,Linearweighted) and MA(L,5D,simple) cross MA(L,5D,Linearweighted) , as fast and the D1-RE(30D) for phases, for D1-exursions. The RE channel covers 3 D1-excursions waving. A D1-excursion can be analysed also at the h1-template as h1-expedition for intraday details. The RE indicator detects excursions not expeditions, at each time frame. This version of the start-spin ubiquitous system requires daily frequency monitoring. The rules are
1) We open up if both crosses MA(H) and MA(L) has just turned up ,and is below the Low level of D1-RE(30D) which has up-acceleration or up anticipating deceleration.
2) We close up when if both cross MA(h) and MA(L) for the first time has turned down (usually this is so when it is above the High level of D1-RE(30D)). We also close if the D1-RE(30D)) starts decelerating, while it was accelerating, and the MA(H) is above the high level of
the D1-RE(30D)).
3) Symmetrically for down positions.
4) When positions are allowed to open and are sustained (the continuity of sustaining the position during a D1-excursion is also checked by the AO(D1), and disjunctive on the two crosses MA(h), MA(L)) , we apply the standard trading weaver, which pyramids, anti-pyramids, and trails over a grid.
5) All D1-excursions open and close, at the open or close of D1-bars, that is once the day at its change.
Notice that in the above last method, we do not put in conjunction as usually the momentums and accelerations at 5D and 30D, but the 5D versus the 30D channel phases. For faster signals than the MA crosses, we may utilize the zz-vector versous the RE-channel phase.
The idea is to filter-out or sieve-out the small D1-excursions as defined by the D1-MA(H/L, 5D) crosses or AUSOsc and the 30D RE-channel phases. We also anticipate the end of a D1-excursion by the mid-zzvectors graphical method of Babson (how traded a star-spin system too).
The RE(n) indicator and channel phases, essentially display well the by 4 zz-vectors waves or excursion waves, not the elliot trend (expedition trend). Therefore compared to the spikes runs analysis of terminal-initial see below) are more local facts.
The application of the above specifications of manual trading, can be done in a excellent way by purchasing options. The fact that options are obligatory wrongly valued with the assumption of a neutral and trendless market (50% probability up 50% probability down) , and the fact that the final value of the options is asymmetric relative to where the underlying will end at expiration, give systematic favourable opportunities to make a better successful trading compared to spot-trading of the underlying.. The risk is always limited to the cost of the option, and even if prices go lower than the strike price of the options the position does not close, as is the case of spot positions with stop loss. In other words, when utilizing purchases of options for the above protocol, no stop loss is necessary. By far manual trading with reward/risk>1 can be done better with option purchases that with spot market. The disadvantage with options here is the decaying time value, but it can be handled (by as close as is wise expirations, and preference to the in-the-money options), and is a lesser disadvantage than the advantage of lower risk and no need of stop loss.
As additional bonus we may focus only on terminal spikes, and their reaction (somehow applying the Bill Williams method of terminal spikes, not on D1 timeframe as D1-spikes but on the h4-timeframe as h4-spikes, and analyzed as above in D1, for manual action convenience!. Terminal spikes are more rare than initial spikes.While initial spikes (lightnings) are best traded at their "blows", the terminal spikes are best traded at their reaction or retrace "thunders". which in fact are "anti-lightnings" Spikes may be detected with the Spike_runs indicator, and by observing the position of the spike-run-spike within the trend zz-vector we may assess if it is terminal or initial. In this case, the terminal/initial may be H1 (or D1) intra-excursion property , not need counting elliot order within H1 (or D1) expedition. Obviously in this way the density of opportunities is much higher. Also if we use the spike-runs indicator (or the spectral-spikes indicator) we may assess from the alternation of runs of spikes if the spike is terminal or initial not as an intra-excursion property, but rather as extra-excursion and intra-expedition property.
When we add the requirement of trading at spikes the two conditions to check are
1) We are at the proximity of a spike, so that the excursion will be anti-lightning or blow
2) The background excursion is favorable.
Let the market do what ever it wants, never oppose it. But you can also do what ever you want, and in particular you know how to insist successfully more than the market, so that you and the market finally agree.
There is the isomorphic universal system of the last rules in the h1-template that may be called the planet-spin system. In case we utilize a HMA -ATR envelope for the phases , we consider as end of the zz-vector or trade, the re-entrance of the H/L MA's inside the envelope channel. In the case of spike zz-vectors we may utilize after exit from the channel, the SAR end as zz-vector end. A.Dukas had practiced it with different indicators, but same frequency, on all cfd's
The terminal spikes subsystem of the h1-TimeFrame planet-spin system (a planet-spin-spikes system) is much analogous to the ForexGrowthBot system. The palnet-spin-spikes can be used to trade binary options that expire in a few hours (e.g. end of day). In that case we back it up with the requirement that at the d1-template of star-spin system, the direction of the d1-excursion, zz-vector (no need to be spiked depended) agrees.
The volumes measurement do provide better forecasting. The true rules of volumes are
1. A momentum acceleration is a true acceleration, if the volumes are increasing too.
2. A momentum deceleration is a true deceleration, if the volumes are decreasing too.
Ofcourse the converse does not hold: An acceleration can be true, even if the volumes are not increasing. But if they are increasing we are sure it is true acceleration. The same with the deceleration.
By
automating with a software robot the pyramiding-adjusting-trailing part as in
4) 5) above as a kind of grid-trader (I call it weaver) , with user defined
trigger lines, and leaving manual the pattern recognition as in 1),2),3) 6) we
get a kind of Hybrid trading system, which is more convenient than a 100%
manual system, and more flexible accurate and effective than a 100%
automated system.It works best when the focal periodicity is the star-spin (=1month=20days) as the manual trends pattern recognition is done on daily time frame and slower, thus once only per day.
Alternatively we utilize the next rules to detect D1-excursions as parts of a D1-waving pattern (not D1-trend, by D1-expeditions pattern) :We utilize the next custom indicators :D1-MA(H,5D,simple) cross MA(H,5D,Linearweighted) and MA(L,5D,simple) cross MA(L,5D,Linearweighted) , as fast and the D1-RE(30D) for phases, for D1-exursions. The RE channel covers 3 D1-excursions waving. A D1-excursion can be analysed also at the h1-template as h1-expedition for intraday details. The RE indicator detects excursions not expeditions, at each time frame. This version of the start-spin ubiquitous system requires daily frequency monitoring. The rules are
1) We open up if both crosses MA(H) and MA(L) has just turned up ,and is below the Low level of D1-RE(30D) which has up-acceleration or up anticipating deceleration.
2) We close up when if both cross MA(h) and MA(L) for the first time has turned down (usually this is so when it is above the High level of D1-RE(30D)). We also close if the D1-RE(30D)) starts decelerating, while it was accelerating, and the MA(H) is above the high level of
the D1-RE(30D)).
3) Symmetrically for down positions.
4) When positions are allowed to open and are sustained (the continuity of sustaining the position during a D1-excursion is also checked by the AO(D1), and disjunctive on the two crosses MA(h), MA(L)) , we apply the standard trading weaver, which pyramids, anti-pyramids, and trails over a grid.
5) All D1-excursions open and close, at the open or close of D1-bars, that is once the day at its change.
Notice that in the above last method, we do not put in conjunction as usually the momentums and accelerations at 5D and 30D, but the 5D versus the 30D channel phases. For faster signals than the MA crosses, we may utilize the zz-vector versous the RE-channel phase.
The idea is to filter-out or sieve-out the small D1-excursions as defined by the D1-MA(H/L, 5D) crosses or AUSOsc and the 30D RE-channel phases. We also anticipate the end of a D1-excursion by the mid-zzvectors graphical method of Babson (how traded a star-spin system too).
The RE(n) indicator and channel phases, essentially display well the by 4 zz-vectors waves or excursion waves, not the elliot trend (expedition trend). Therefore compared to the spikes runs analysis of terminal-initial see below) are more local facts.
The application of the above specifications of manual trading, can be done in a excellent way by purchasing options. The fact that options are obligatory wrongly valued with the assumption of a neutral and trendless market (50% probability up 50% probability down) , and the fact that the final value of the options is asymmetric relative to where the underlying will end at expiration, give systematic favourable opportunities to make a better successful trading compared to spot-trading of the underlying.. The risk is always limited to the cost of the option, and even if prices go lower than the strike price of the options the position does not close, as is the case of spot positions with stop loss. In other words, when utilizing purchases of options for the above protocol, no stop loss is necessary. By far manual trading with reward/risk>1 can be done better with option purchases that with spot market. The disadvantage with options here is the decaying time value, but it can be handled (by as close as is wise expirations, and preference to the in-the-money options), and is a lesser disadvantage than the advantage of lower risk and no need of stop loss.
As additional bonus we may focus only on terminal spikes, and their reaction (somehow applying the Bill Williams method of terminal spikes, not on D1 timeframe as D1-spikes but on the h4-timeframe as h4-spikes, and analyzed as above in D1, for manual action convenience!. Terminal spikes are more rare than initial spikes.While initial spikes (lightnings) are best traded at their "blows", the terminal spikes are best traded at their reaction or retrace "thunders". which in fact are "anti-lightnings" Spikes may be detected with the Spike_runs indicator, and by observing the position of the spike-run-spike within the trend zz-vector we may assess if it is terminal or initial. In this case, the terminal/initial may be H1 (or D1) intra-excursion property , not need counting elliot order within H1 (or D1) expedition. Obviously in this way the density of opportunities is much higher. Also if we use the spike-runs indicator (or the spectral-spikes indicator) we may assess from the alternation of runs of spikes if the spike is terminal or initial not as an intra-excursion property, but rather as extra-excursion and intra-expedition property.
When we add the requirement of trading at spikes the two conditions to check are
1) We are at the proximity of a spike, so that the excursion will be anti-lightning or blow
2) The background excursion is favorable.
Let the market do what ever it wants, never oppose it. But you can also do what ever you want, and in particular you know how to insist successfully more than the market, so that you and the market finally agree.
There is the isomorphic universal system of the last rules in the h1-template that may be called the planet-spin system. In case we utilize a HMA -ATR envelope for the phases , we consider as end of the zz-vector or trade, the re-entrance of the H/L MA's inside the envelope channel. In the case of spike zz-vectors we may utilize after exit from the channel, the SAR end as zz-vector end. A.Dukas had practiced it with different indicators, but same frequency, on all cfd's
The terminal spikes subsystem of the h1-TimeFrame planet-spin system (a planet-spin-spikes system) is much analogous to the ForexGrowthBot system. The palnet-spin-spikes can be used to trade binary options that expire in a few hours (e.g. end of day). In that case we back it up with the requirement that at the d1-template of star-spin system, the direction of the d1-excursion, zz-vector (no need to be spiked depended) agrees.
The volumes measurement do provide better forecasting. The true rules of volumes are
1. A momentum acceleration is a true acceleration, if the volumes are increasing too.
2. A momentum deceleration is a true deceleration, if the volumes are decreasing too.
Ofcourse the converse does not hold: An acceleration can be true, even if the volumes are not increasing. But if they are increasing we are sure it is true acceleration. The same with the deceleration.
By involving the 7 main factors of front-office in trading:
a) Support-Resistance lines and channel (which may require to involve the W. Babson media lines recursive forecasting, and channel width-zones or width-phases rules)
b) Deceleration (or divergence)
c) Volumes (especially as periodicity in the 3 sessions in forex. Or e.g. with the indicator On-Balance-volumes which is an excelent smoothing, the decelerations is also easy to read)
d) Correlation of start-end of trends with spikes
e) Pyramiding (as Pareto trend-duration optimality)
f) Adjusting (or anti-pyramiding, as optimal position size adjustments relative to random fluctuations, during constant trends.See posts 3 and 33. In optimal adjusting we increase the position when losing and it decrease when gaining, due to random fluctuations. It is best aplied to the equity curve, which in a succesful system, has it own constant trend , but it can apply also to the spot market during constant trends.)
We may also define an additive score for the above factors a), b), c),d),g) and classify opportunities and instruments according to their score.
g) The focal frequency of periodicity and one background periodicity (periodicity of the volatility. All relevant parameters of the indicators of the focal periodicity, are powers of 2
[=(1/2)^n)] submultiples of the focal period. The same with the background period. We may take as focal the month=20days (star spin), and as background the half-year=120days. We could as well take focal the day=24 hours (planet spin) and as background the month=20days, but this would require automation almost 100%. Furthermore we could utilize as focal the day=24 hours (planet spin) with double background the month=20days (star spin), and as 2nd background the half-year=120days.I call it the tri-angular system. tri-angular=3 angular momentums, planet orbital. star-spin, planet spin,).
According to the practice of Chuck Hughes, by utilizing options too, the star-spin system with reinvestment, has speed 0.4mds (=40% monthly), while according to the practice of Bill. Williams without utilizing options but utilizing pyramiding it has speed 0.2mds (=20% monthly). With the A. Dukas practice, without utilizing options but with maximum leverage 100 on stocks, the tri-angular system, without reinvestment has speed 0.65mds(=65% monthly) at 30 % maxDD, 70% success rate and 6 hours average trade duration.
[=(1/2)^n)] submultiples of the focal period. The same with the background period. We may take as focal the month=20days (star spin), and as background the half-year=120days. We could as well take focal the day=24 hours (planet spin) and as background the month=20days, but this would require automation almost 100%. Furthermore we could utilize as focal the day=24 hours (planet spin) with double background the month=20days (star spin), and as 2nd background the half-year=120days.I call it the tri-angular system. tri-angular=3 angular momentums, planet orbital. star-spin, planet spin,).
According to the practice of Chuck Hughes, by utilizing options too, the star-spin system with reinvestment, has speed 0.4mds (=40% monthly), while according to the practice of Bill. Williams without utilizing options but utilizing pyramiding it has speed 0.2mds (=20% monthly). With the A. Dukas practice, without utilizing options but with maximum leverage 100 on stocks, the tri-angular system, without reinvestment has speed 0.65mds(=65% monthly) at 30 % maxDD, 70% success rate and 6 hours average trade duration.
It is hardly possible not to have a very successful trading
The rest of the back-office factors are the exposure and leverage rule, and the reinvestment and capitalization growth rules.We may also define an additive score for the above factors a), b), c),d),g) and classify opportunities and instruments according to their score.
A system protocol to trade trend-patterns, based on the previous factors that creates the "initiating setup" would be
1) We check that the focal trend just started and it is the same direction with the background trend(s).
2) We make sure that there is still acceleration and deceleration has not started. We confirm it also with the volumes, to be sure that it is a genuine acceleration.
3) We look also for an initiating spike to confirm the trend start
4) We pyramid each time by opening more positions, near the support or channel backward zone. Because adjustment and pyramiding are superimposed pyramiding is diminishing as the trend proceeds (e.g. like the numbers 5,4,3,2,1.Obviously the size 5 corresponds to the "Blow" Elliot subwave)
5) We adjust optimally during the trend by partially closing near the resistance , or channel forward zone. We may trail also as rule of optimal adjustment of the position size relative to the random fluctuations.
6) If deceleration appears, then the partial closing of 5) becomes a complete closing of all positions.
To apply the above protocol to the flat waves, and stationarity-ranging patterns also , we do not pyramid and adjust at each channel boundary (in other words along the trend or expedition), but during the movement that crosses transversally the channel (in other words along the subwave or excursion), and we may do it up only or down only or up and down, according the background periodicity, three states (up, down, neutral)
There are indicators for each of the above factors.
a) For the Support-Resistance lines it can be used, an indicator that gives a zig-zag with s/r lines , and/or pitchfork lines. We may also utilize a statistical histogram to define horizontal support-resistance. And we may also use the extrapolator channel indicator, so that its 5-line channel gives non-horizontal s/r . We may use also, the Ketler channel (simple or hull moving average) for curvilinear , non-horizontal support-resitance lines.
b) For the deceleration we may use the On-Balance-Volume indicator, or the Awesome oscillator of B. Williams, or the MACD, plus the pitchfork lines as in a). We may also use the extrapolator indicator which is a sinusoidal function fit at 30 days, thus it gives deceleration-acceleration.
c) For the volumes we may utilize an volumes-oscillator if we are interested for sessional periodicity, or the On-balance-volume indicator if we are interested for he deceleration or divergence.
d) For the spikes, a custom oscillator for spikes, or the spike-runs indicator or the aligator of B. Williams.
e) For the frequency of periodicity, we may focus on the star-spin (monthly) periodicity, with daily time frame, that is once per day monitoring. Thus the ketler channel as in a) should be at 20 days,or we may utilize the aligator of B. Williams which is at the periodicity of star-spin.. For background periodicity, the planet-orbital, that is 6 months or 3 months harmonic of the annual periodicity. We may use a EMA 50/100 days cross, or a bollinger bundle at 80 days and 2s.
f) For the pyramiding and adjusting and trailing with stop loss and take profit, we should program a grid trader to do it 100% automatically (I call such a robot a "weaver"). Then "drive" manually this robot, based on the manual pattern recognition of the trends. If we run the planet-spin system (focal periodicity=24 hours) then the "driving" of the grid-trader based on the hourly pattern recognition of the trend should be automatic too, which makes it more difficult that the star-spin system (focal periodicity=1month=20 days). As pattern recognition is best done manual, while pyramiding and adjusting, and trailing is best done automatically, the star-spin system (focal periodicity=1month=20days) is more effective at the present state of the art of technology.
For a manual online performance of star-spin on stocks see e.g.
11. The performance of the google car excursions, if they occur every day (e.g. if necessary by a rotating on different pairs or instruments), at a 33% maxDD is at least 1 MDS. It is actually a backoffice fact: 80% succes rate of daily excursions, risking each 6%, and a reward/risk>=1, is already an 1MDS, with 20% standard deviation of it, and with average monthly maxDD 11% +-3%.But if restricted to one only pair or instrument , it is about 0.25 MDS, in other words as that which Bill Williams has succeeded for more than 50 years (3 ads). Of course with monthly reinvestment even a 0.1mds is a 3 ads). Usually nevertheless we prefer keeping it even lower so that maxDD is also less than 33%. Here is a staircase from 0.1MDS to 1 MDS even at one only instrument. : If we want to keep a 90% of the days, trading so that we are at 1 MDS score at 33% MDD, even at one instrument only, we must turn from the Blue (daily) zz-channel expeditions to the violet zz-channel expeditions where the spikes are too. One alternative way is to trade only the zz-vector excursions of the Blue zz-channel , by the median TP , SL, midTPSL lines. But it seems better to utilize a 4h/2h violet h-zz-channel or a PnF-pitchfork of 33ps at M5, and just trade its expeditions as breakout reversals, instead of its zz-vector excursions. The violet spikes alone at least for EURUSD, are statistically reliable as measured for the last 12 years (half Kuznets cycle). Of course all the other conditions, like violet spikes divergence, pitchfork deceleration, BandM etc, are valid to utilize in parallel. This last particular 1 MDS half-manual trading, is of course not feasible as once per day monitoring. If we just trade the Blue ZZ-channel expeditions with all the other conditions at h1 (especially of the deceleration which is more than 80% of the success of the driving, while the resonance and spectral features are less than 20% of the success of the driving. The consideration of the deceleration among the 15 best pairs, makes high rate of success daily excursions e.g. >=88% and given reward/risk=1 and a risk percentage 12% we are already very high at xmds!) , the score seems to be at 0.5 MDS at 33% MDD with GTP gridtrader. But if the previous fast weaver is , withoutGTP, only BE trail 0.2ATR(50D1) and GS=50μps, freq=5min, manual TP, SL and starting lev=1.5 or 1% risk per position and 6% for all positions , it seems that it is of the order of 1MDS at 33% MDD, only with 50% of the days trading, 88% success rate, and AVGproft>=2*AVGL. Compare with the trading of the outer 3 Donchian channels, in the turtle tarding, which if 100% automated, is for the last 5-6 years (Kitchin cycle) a 0.03mds at 33% maxDD. And the part of trading on the trend of violet spikes with early entry, is of 0.05-0.1 mds for the last 5-6 years. The score of E.L's EA spikes trading of the violet spikes, for the last 12 years (half Kuznets cycle) is 0.1-0.2 mds. Also the old countertrend (by 50ps PnF zigzag negative feedback or D1 OHLC s=0 negative feedback or D1 Renko bars negative feedback) daytraing set-n-forget system with 50pSL and 50ps trail (activated at 100ps, 0.1l/1k) for EURUSD (best) has for the last 5.5 years (Kitchin cycle) performance 0.1mds-0.25mds at 33%MDD. This latter system is essentially the median line prediction action-reaction of Babson of the zz-vectors normalized as daily set_n_forget system. It is probably the strongest 100% automated verification of a simplified version of the current manual system. As it is a daytrading system it can be executed also manually with binary options, (a true Day-trade System) in which case the risk has to be 6%-12% and the montecarlo-simulator computes both MaxDD as 15% and a remarkable >=1mds performance! Actually the backoffice simulator gives that if the success rate is at least 90%, the reward/risk 1, and we risk 6% each time, with 50% of the days trading (among all pairs) we get already a 0.5MDS with 4%+-3% mDD. While with 25% only of the days finding opportunity, and risk 20% (success rate 88%, Reward/Risk=1) we already have 1MDS with 8%+-11% mDD. While with 12% risk, success rate 88%, Reward/Risk=1, and 25% inly of the days opportunities we have 0.5MDS, with 5%+-7%mDD. The practice shows that at least 33% of the days, trades are activated and 88% of these days are profitable. Therefore given the above performances of the 100% automated systems, the 0.5mds (at <=33%mDD, on all pairs) of the half-manual is reasonably easier feasibility.The frequency is also that of the achievement of A. Dukas, and also of A. Elder , in other words sessional durations (which over many instruments has also score 1 MDS) and also as trend momentum-deceleration frequency that of the old systems 2-5 SMA and I-master. As the B. Williams records a 0.25mds perforamnce during his 50 years of trading, and optimal adjusting boosts by 7 times, it already gives a score aboce 1MDS for the daily half-automated trading (manual driving of a googlecar). This is partly an automated confirmation of the validity of the half-automated trading in the long run. The above rates have a monthly standard deviation of about 20%-33% of them.
The spikes fully automated system (0.1mds-0.2mds at 33%mDD) is a confirmation of the inner excursions of the half-manual trading, while the OHLC counter trend fully automated system (0.1mds-0.25mds at 33%mDD) is a confirmation of the outer excursions of the half-manual system. If the latter automated system is with conjunction with conditions like ripples trend (ZZ-channel trend), ZZ-vector counter trend and HMA 60D, HMA 20D, the success rate can be up to 90%, while in the manual, the daily excursions may have success rate above 95%!. The two automated systems simulteneously have little correlation (trend-countertrend, other hours) so the combined fully automated effect can be close to at least 0.25mds at 33% mDD.
By applying the above protocol on Gold and Silver we get at least a 40% improvement to the average performance, due to the current financial crisis persistent long-lasting clear trends in them and down-spikes retracements. If not at D1 spike-trends, we may apply the slow weaver D1-driven, which opens at 100-decimal levels only and has BE trail 50-ps with straing leverage 1 or after manual SL, and starting level, 1% per position and 6% on all positions risk. Even significant simplifications of the above algorithm (e.g. based on the focal spin frequency detected by the HMA-cross) would work really very well. This would mean 1.4mds or 0.07dds. By intra-trade reinvestment of profits and pyramiding . with BE trailing ATR(D1) 0.1 and max flating DD 33% (or if non-BE then no max flating DD) , preferably individual stoploss ATR(D1) 0.85,and by automating equity based control of margin and risk percentage, leads to some "miracles" of fast capitalization even within say 5 months, as publication of seemingly real cases with real money seems to have proven. (Andy turned 1.6K to 1.4M during 2011 by G. and S. in CMC MM, in 5 months! Actually in 10-15 trading days! His method is classified, as far as frequencies is concerned, as a star-spin-spikes system. It seems nevertheless that he concentrated in down spike-days only, detected as down Lightnings at the d1 template, and achieved a speed of 0.5dds-1.5dds; This is about consistent with measured fact that the intraday weaver boosts the daily percentage change by a factor of about 7 times. The intra-day weaver for gold and silver requires tight individual trade non-breakeven 0.85% ATR(D1) stoploss, 6% risk of individual trade, and no floating max DD when non-BE trailing or max floating DD 33% when BE trailing ATR(D1) 0.1, pyramiding of course at 0.05 ATR(D1) , equity-based margin whn control 65%, maximum backards opens 5, bot-trigger line to stoploss the weaver as in the xmds speed too, and end-of-day closing of the expedition, for the reinvestment at xdds speed to take place! The intraday weaver is driven by the carpe_diem_hybrid M15 template, as expeditions, or by the h1 template, as excursions). Only at xdds speed we do require that the background is as 1st priority lighning or as 2nd priority just clear detection of parallel direction. The continuation h1-excursions can be defined by the h1-zigzag below and up of the Hullband envelope and ols-mid, in the direction that the ols-channel gives, so as to escape of loss of opportunities that the false pitchfork deceleration gives for such persistent trends as in gold and silver. The pitchfork-channel is best for reversal breakout excursions , but the ols-channel and hullband+zigzag , is best for the continuation excursions. The backoffice Excel simulator confirms that by even a slower mode of daily trading with 88% success rate and 9.27% risk and reward, such a speed of capitalization within 100 days, is feasible, leading to 17,61 maxDD, and 68% standard deviation of final balance.
The escalation from 0.1mds to 1mds, requires the speed of 1dds! By selecting Reaction-D1-Lighnings and D1-Blows as D1-excusrions (=H1-expeditions) in other words early high acceleration times, and setting the weaver at higher leverage e.g. 4%-12% risk or even 10%-25%,, Maxmargin=25% GS=0.125ATR, Trail=0.2ATR, GBartrail=30h-120h , maybe HMA=30h, we get the weaving that creates the xdds speed, although it may appear only 1-5 times in a year! This makes the 1mds. Therefore here we have (besides pyramiding and optimal adjustments by the weaver) the dependence of the position size and leverage on the intesity of the acceleration. It seems that the d1-excursions is more profitable speed, than the h1-excursions, mainly due to the limitations on the grid-space of the weaver, by the spread. (There are two kinds of weavers, the fast for h1-excursions, the slow for d1-excursions. The weaver defines the transversal grid trading along a trend, with pyramiding and positions size optimal adjustments)
The escalation from 0.1mds to 1mds, requires the speed of 1dds! By selecting Reaction-D1-Lighnings and D1-Blows as D1-excusrions (=H1-expeditions) in other words early high acceleration times, and setting the weaver at higher leverage e.g. 4%-12% risk or even 10%-25%,, Maxmargin=25% GS=0.125ATR, Trail=0.2ATR, GBartrail=30h-120h , maybe HMA=30h, we get the weaving that creates the xdds speed, although it may appear only 1-5 times in a year! This makes the 1mds. Therefore here we have (besides pyramiding and optimal adjustments by the weaver) the dependence of the position size and leverage on the intesity of the acceleration. It seems that the d1-excursions is more profitable speed, than the h1-excursions, mainly due to the limitations on the grid-space of the weaver, by the spread. (There are two kinds of weavers, the fast for h1-excursions, the slow for d1-excursions. The weaver defines the transversal grid trading along a trend, with pyramiding and positions size optimal adjustments)
Of course all resulted rates of return of such a trading, if it were to be recorded by the bank accounting and published, would be figures divided by 100, as the usual maximum nominal leverage in forex is 100. So all this effort would be equivalent to achieve what is the usual annual return of the markets (10%-12%) but with 100 times less variance of the equities curve, so that nominal maximum draw down would not exceed the 0.33%.
Classification of known succesful systems to the 3 basic optimal frequencies
Planet-orbit system: Keith Fitschen's Aberration system (Bollinger bundles 80D) , Bill Wiliams (aligator based pyramiding), Chuck Hughes vertical spreads (50/100 EMA, OnBalanceVolumes).
Star-spin system: Chuck Hughes option purchasing (by Ketler channels 20D), Commodex, Bill Wiliams (Balance line trades), A. Elder system, TradeVantage (neural networks).
Planet-spin system: A. Elder intra-day trading (manual), A. Dukas 2003-trading (Hybrid trading, half manual, half automated) , and the 100% automated ForexGrowthBot, CD-auto, CD-auto-fast, Spike-hunter, Pipjet (scalper) etc. (MT4 Expert Advisors)
In overall , it is not "easy money", neither "get rich quick scheme". And of course it is not a "zero sum game". What you gain is not necessarily lost by some others. Modern money are created from zero (central banks) and are anihilated to zero (central banks again). For some reasons the best of the known traders are not greedy, and they stop the capitalization based on the ability to utilize the funds in a valuable way in society, rather than based on the difficulty to capitalize. The top 10 banks make half or more billion profits annually. We may notice also that there are whole industries in Chine right now (2011) that grow faster, than the above performance rate of asset growth. Make sure that you do a quality conduction of the above protocol, every day. By keeping constant the protocol , an NLP anchor of success is created in the subconsious. At fist in the personal subconsious and then is joined with the great "anchors" of the collective subconsious. NLP-anchors are also almost "biological beliefs" as psycho-neurology uses as terminology. Not changing the protocol means not to extripate the golden tree of success. Enjoy the richness of every day and plan for life and prosperity as if for ever.Then let the Law of large numbers , cosmic and personal habitforce, to work for you so as to get the expected growth.
The parallel grid of support-resistance levels (Darvas zones) admits a simple optimal trading
system, with minimal mathematical assumptions about the stochastic process of the prices. E.g. We may assume that we have a random walk, with reflecting parallel levels, for some limited time interval. That is, no Demand-Supply dynamic equations of domination, competition and cooperation (as in post 22) that lead to the 4 patterns of spike, trend, waves, and stationarity (post 32). And even with so unfavourable simplistic mathematical assumptions, there is mathematically valid systematic profitable trading: That of, buying at a support-resistance Darvas level, of the stationarity-zone and pattern and selling, at the opposite parallel support-resistance Darvas level. Furthermore we assume time-varying shaping of transition probabilities for adjacent Darvas zones in the above random walk. But what is more important is that we have also an "a priori" (prior) shaping of transition probabilities (not posterior) for the adjacent next Darvas zone: At the one of the two parallel support-resistance level, that we observe a skew triangle pattern formation, we also have the incubation and shaping by accumulation of transition probability >50% of crossing the particular support-resistance level for the next Darvas zone. Now this is very important and efficient forecasting tool, equivalent to the forecasting tool of acceleration or divergence, which is also prior to reversals, not posterior. In the more comprehensive stochastic process models of the prices with the 4 patterns, the above Darvas-zones trading system, covers essentially all 4 price patterns, as at the realization of the incubating transition probability, we have a breakout which is either the start, of a spike or the start of a trend. The wave patterns are included and are occurring within the stationarity pattern of the parallel Darvas levels.
Because of the simplicity of the parallel support-resistance levels trading, and the prior, not posterior shaping of the transition probabilities, it constitutes probably one of the simplest and most powerful and successful trading systems.
The position opening rules, are of course:
1) We open positions (pending or not) a bit away from the support-resistance level where the skew triangle is formed, and we close , at the support-resistance level from inside the Darvas zone
2) We open also by pending , just outside the Darvas zone, where we expect the Breakout and we close about at the middle of the next adjacent Darvas zone or even better we set a trailing based on 2/3 of the distance between Darvas lines. Even if the market makes a false breakout and goes eventually in the opposite way, we do insist to follow it, and with the trailing and pyramiding we close in total in profit, covering the false breakout cost.
3) We consult the star-spin ubiquitous simple template at daily bars, and filter out days that it confirms the 1) and 2).
The rule 2) has by far less risk that the rule 1).
An oversimplified and imperfect automated version of this trading system, is the robot Turtle Breakout described and presented in post 53.
Obviously because this trading system concentrates on the stationarity Darvas-zone pattern it is the best for scalping, or fast intraday trading, as the trends are very fast changing at the very short-time scales, and this trading has prior to trends forecasting. 1) We open positions (pending or not) a bit away from the support-resistance level where the skew triangle is formed, and we close , at the support-resistance level from inside the Darvas zone
2) We open also by pending , just outside the Darvas zone, where we expect the Breakout and we close about at the middle of the next adjacent Darvas zone or even better we set a trailing based on 2/3 of the distance between Darvas lines. Even if the market makes a false breakout and goes eventually in the opposite way, we do insist to follow it, and with the trailing and pyramiding we close in total in profit, covering the false breakout cost.
3) We consult the star-spin ubiquitous simple template at daily bars, and filter out days that it confirms the 1) and 2).
The rule 2) has by far less risk that the rule 1).
An oversimplified and imperfect automated version of this trading system, is the robot Turtle Breakout described and presented in post 53.
For the daily-rainbow-periodicity time scale, the Darvas-zones are depicted by the Dochian channel at 6 hours length, and usually the breakout is from the Darvas-zone shaped by the session-less time zone, before the beginning of the Asian session. The Breakout is more often during the European or USA-session. The expected size of the breakout is of about 25 pips.
The practice of this system goes about with the next steps:
We may call it Key Levels Breakouts, or manual Carpe Diem
1) We cheque the market at the end of the day . If the price is at the key levels xx00 or xx50, plus 20 pips and minus 30 pips, then if the price during the day will go close to the next plus xx00 or xx50 level , after plus 35 pips, then we open a trade (in the plus direction) with stop loss and take profit 25 pips and trailling 20 pips.
2) (Optional) We consult the star-spin ubiquitous simple template at daily bars, or the Carpe Diem rule of opposite direction to the previous day, or the Venus rule of opposite direction to the two previous days if a run, or just if the secondary S/R boundary of the narrow channel is not by reflecting but by pushing, and filter out days that it confirms the 1).
3) We put a pending order triggering to set these key levels breakouts, in both directions , at the end of the day.
3) We put a pending order triggering to set these key levels breakouts, in both directions , at the end of the day.
4) We adjust the order lot size according to our risk management rules, and reinvestment rules.
Statistical backtests for at least 5 years on m15 bars prove that the above system is profitable, with about 59% success rate, and reward to risk ratio about 2, and about half as much as the Venus system in post 52.
In the above trading we utilize the two mathematical-statistical principles
a) daily sessional periodicity of the volatility-volumes of the forex market
b) Duration of the trends following a power distribution, inherited from the distribution of the size of enterprises that want to exchange currency.
The principle b) guarantees that the breakout will be long enough in a systematic way, so that the pending order will succeed.
As the average daily range is about 2 (or 3) times the 50 pips distance of the xx00, xx50 key darvas levels, which is the basic S/R step, if one of the basic S/R steps has occurred it is more probable that the 2nd (or 3rd too) will occur. In this, it seems, that it is based the above trading system. It utilizes daily volatility-volume periodicity, as the assessment is at the minimum volatility when all banks are closed, it is utilized the momentum conservation (trend), the key support-resistance levels, and adjusting (trailing). In a more sophisticated version, it can have pyramiding too.
Notice also that (even in a neutral ) rainbow walk (see post 20), where the transition probability that the market would go from xx00 to the next higher or next lower xx00, would be equal. if we set a trade opening at xx00 and closing with TP <=50 pips, and SL=SLminimum to cover fluctuations ,TP/SL>1) it would be statistically a profitable trade and trading system. While if SL<=50 pips and SL>TP it would be statistically a losing trade and trading system! This is not the case of course of the market would be a pure random walk and not a rainbow walk. This is contrary to the common conception of early traders that prefer to set SL>TP to have fast profit results.
By adding the manual pattern recognition for a daily trend ( that would make the rainbow walk non-neutral), we may not set some of the trades which would make the trading system even more profitable, than just automated conduction of it.E.g. we favour days of the week with higher volatility like Fridays, or announcement days (e.g. non-farm payroll reports days) etc.
In the above trading we utilize the two mathematical-statistical principles
a) daily sessional periodicity of the volatility-volumes of the forex market
b) Duration of the trends following a power distribution, inherited from the distribution of the size of enterprises that want to exchange currency.
The principle b) guarantees that the breakout will be long enough in a systematic way, so that the pending order will succeed.
Another variation of a decimal-levels trading system that may be called the Decimal-Attractors (or Decimal Toll Posts) is the next:
1) We start trading only if the market goes at the in-between to the Decimal-support/resistance levels, that is around xx75 and xx35. Once the market is there we set pending stop-orders, upwards and downwards with 5-pips spacing. That is buy-stops at xx80, xx85, xx90. xx95 with stop loss at xx50 and takeprofit at xx00, and sell-stops at xx70, xx65, xx60, xx55, with stoploss at xx00 and takeprofit at xx50.
2) Let us say that eventually the market ended at xx00. Normally the market will hesitate a bit around xx75, it may go lower to open the sell-stop position xx70, and then move upwards. When it will go to the xx80 to open the buy-stop position we make sure that we add one more buy-stop at xx80 or xx85 or better xx90 of size equal to the total size of opened sell-stop positions. Buy the time it will end to the xx00, the whole grid of positions will be profitable.
3) Similarly of the market ends finally to the decimal level xx50. The sell-stops will give the profit.
4) Similarly for the level xx35.
5) The unfavourable scenario would be that the market will go many times back and forth around xx75, opening in sequence opposite positions with increasing size, according to the rule 2) or 3).
But the choice of xx75, and xx35 is such that this is of lower probability, as the market remains and goes back and forth at the support-resistance levels and not in between. In any case, we may set a limit of how many times we will increase the sizes after back-forth (e.g. 2 or 3 times, in which scenario we will have to stop with loss). Another variation of the above is to utilize at roots of the above grid both the xx70, and xx35 (not only one of them) and put not pending orders between the xx70, xx35. In other words the alternative exits are the xx00 or the lower xx00, and not the xx50. This has the advantage of not following any back and forth of the market between xx70 and xx35, but the disadvantage of more waiting time to complete, and thus less opportunities.
We may also check the templates at H1 (hours) and D1 (days) and setup the pending orders only if it is well apparent that the market will go to one of the two directions, while do not setup the pending if there is no such preferential strong sign ( we setup pending in both directions).
A variation of this system, which could be called Spikes Decimal Attractor, is to apply the previous setup only after a spike, which is visible in the h1, hourly template. If the spike is terminal, the reaction would be the more probably come out of the decimal-attractor setup, while if it is initial, the continuation would be the more probably come out of the decimal-attractor setup. Because we put the setup only at spikes, the case of back-and-forth indecision of the market is not that probable! The retrace of the spike are more probable to be gained as attractions to the xx50 levels, while the continuations of the spike as attractions to the xx00 levels. If we combine the Decimal Spikes Attractor, with the Key Levels Breakout, that we might call, Spikes Decimal Toll Posts, we get a manual trading system, which somehow in a simplification of it it is backtested as successful. Combining with the key Levels Breakout essentially means seting the pyramiding only 50 pips away from the last daily close, and keeping a rather tight stop loss to all pending orders, to the closest xx00, or xx50 levels.During 2010 for at least 2-3 months I was doubling the account funds, montthly with such a system. Nevertheless to keep on trading with such a high performance score is no less than a miracle!
We may also check the templates at H1 (hours) and D1 (days) and setup the pending orders only if it is well apparent that the market will go to one of the two directions, while do not setup the pending if there is no such preferential strong sign ( we setup pending in both directions).
A variation of this system, which could be called Spikes Decimal Attractor, is to apply the previous setup only after a spike, which is visible in the h1, hourly template. If the spike is terminal, the reaction would be the more probably come out of the decimal-attractor setup, while if it is initial, the continuation would be the more probably come out of the decimal-attractor setup. Because we put the setup only at spikes, the case of back-and-forth indecision of the market is not that probable! The retrace of the spike are more probable to be gained as attractions to the xx50 levels, while the continuations of the spike as attractions to the xx00 levels. If we combine the Decimal Spikes Attractor, with the Key Levels Breakout, that we might call, Spikes Decimal Toll Posts, we get a manual trading system, which somehow in a simplification of it it is backtested as successful. Combining with the key Levels Breakout essentially means seting the pyramiding only 50 pips away from the last daily close, and keeping a rather tight stop loss to all pending orders, to the closest xx00, or xx50 levels.During 2010 for at least 2-3 months I was doubling the account funds, montthly with such a system. Nevertheless to keep on trading with such a high performance score is no less than a miracle!
The advantages of the above trading system are many
a) It is based on the decimal-support/resistance levels which smart and deep.
b) It is neutral to the up or down direction, thus psychologically appealing
c) We know with very high probability that it will resolve to profit as soon as it will go to the nearest decimal level xx00 or xx50, which gives a sense of psychological certainty.
d) It rarely fails, especially if it is the decimal spikes attractor version.
