ANYONE WHO WILL TRY TO MAKE MONEY SOLELY BY TRADING AND SUCH SYSTEMS OF TRANSACTIONS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THERE IS A VERY POWERFUL AND ALMOST UNBEATABLE COLLECTIVE WILL SO AS NOT TO SUCCEED! NO-ONE WANTS PEOPLE TO QUITE THEIR JOBS AND MAKE MONEY THIS WAY AS IT IS SOMEHOW PARASITIC. IT IS IN SOME SENSE UNETHICAL AS A PRACTICE ENFORCEABLE TO THE MAJORITY. AND OF COURSE NEITHER THOSE WHO HAVE LARGE CAPITAL WANT THAT A MAJORITY WILL MAKE MONEY THIS WAY, AS THEY WOULD PREFER THAT THEY WORK IN THEIR COMPANIES FOR THEM. ONLY IN SPECIAL CONTINGENCIES AND SITUATIONS SOMETHING LIKE THIS WOULD BE ETHICAL. AND IN PARTICULAR A HIGHER MORALITY THAT WOULD SUPPORT SUCH A PRACTICE, WOULD BE PROVABLE WITH COLLECTIVELY BENEVOLENT DEEDS FROM A POSSIBLE SURPLUS OF SUCH MONEY!
There are two mathematical principles on which systematic long run successful trading is based:
1) There are hidden almost periodicities on the volumes and volatility of the prices. The most characteristic are , the daily cycle , the monthly cycles and the annual (or quarter) cycle.
2) The duration of the trends is usually a multiple of the characteristic half-periods as above, and they also follow approximately the distribution of the capitalization sizes of enterprises, in other words a Pareto or a Power distribution.
3) The demand-supply functions under the three coupling modes a) Domination b) Competition c) Cooperation, and as result of this the 3 basic price patterns of spike, trend, and flat channel, emerge.
3) The demand-supply functions under the three coupling modes a) Domination b) Competition c) Cooperation, and as result of this the 3 basic price patterns of spike, trend, and flat channel, emerge.
If a uniform randomness would rule the markets (efficient markets assumption) , the probability of long duration trends would be much less that what it is observed, and their distribution would be a geometric or exponential, and not Pareto or power. Thus the law of "universal attraction" in enterprise formation makes also the markets non-efficient and more predictable that the academic world believes.
Venus
Venus is a fully automated strategy. The logic behind the algorithm applies to the world balance and competition of the two major currencies only, the US Dollar and the Euro (EUR/USD). It utilizes a coupling competition oscillation of Demand-Supply. This system is mainly based on the statistical fact that it is more probable after two consecutive days (48 hours) closing in the same direction, to have in the third day a trend opposite to the previous two day’s trend.
Venus begins opening positions only at a particular time when all bank-sessions are closed (Asian, European, and American). It utilizes the daily periodicity of volumes to choose a time to measure the trend, which is optimal for forecasting the next day’s trend. It measures carefully the deceleration (and acceleration) of the trend, which is always prior to reversals and news releases.
Venus makes on average one trade per two days. It can set to never risks more than 0.4% of account balance per trade, and not more than 1%-2% (floating) of all open trades simultaneously. It always has on each trade, a tight invisible stop loss from 10 pips of 50 pips and a visible stop loss of 50 pips (almost 1/3 of the average daily variance). Rarely the trades last more than a 24 hours. Approximately 78% of the trades are winning. At a maximum draw down of 25% it produces about 13% rate of return per month. With lower risk settings as above, the previous rate of return scales down almost proportionally.
About 2/3 of the months are profitable.
About 2/3 of the months are profitable.
The income from forex automated trading is on the side of counter-balancing the over-debt that the privatised banking-monetary system creates in society.
The next table is by a backtest since 2006 till summer of 2012. It was run on hourly bars. The expert-advisor is set to run only at the opens of the hourly bars.
As seem from the performance below and the classification of commercial forex algorithmic trading robots of the web (in http://www.bestforexrobots.net/ ) the Venus robot is among the best 15 robots of the web.
For this type of expert-advisors, the maximum floating drawdown (during the open positions) is calculated by the code and does not exceed the published Maximum Drawdown which is at the closing or opening of the trades.
For a 5 years backtest since 2008 as analyzed by the MT4i see
http://www.mt4i.com/users/venus_backtest/stats
We may compare these results with the trading results of Larry Williams, which are close to 0.47MDS here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Williams_(a_publisher_and_promoter_of_trading_ideas)
Or with the trading results of Chuck Hughes that also about 0.4MDS
here http://www.chuckhughesonline.com/
Or with the trading results of Dan Zanger that are about 0.42MDS here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Zanger
