The great financial crisis of the 21st century is not over yet! It will be over, when a global reset will occur in the monetary systems (see e.g. http://globalcurrencyreset.net/ see also http://overdebtmonetarysystem.blogspot.gr/2012/04/3-democratization-of-monetary-system.html ) and even more important when the central banks and the banking system will not be the sector that will issue currency and circulate it in the society.
Before this will happen, many more financial earthquakes are expected, and will see many large organizations collapsing both private but also public economics too.
This is also a main reason , that a trading and investing based on the existence in the long run of a constant increasing trend of securities in the various stock exchange markets will not be safe at all. The trend will tend to collapse, and even reverse at least for some years.
On the other hand, trading the material commodities like energy, grains, softs, and metals, will be much more safe. Because in times of rises, e.g. soy is not expected to collapse, instead it is expected to increase its price, or have large prices fluctuations.
We must not forget also that even if not significant changes occur in the production and demand of the commodities, significant changes in the currencies that measure their prices like in the dollar and euro, will appear as significant changes in the prices of the commodities.
Because the population of the planet is increasing and will be increasing till the second half of the 21st century, it is expected also a slight increasing trend in the prices of the above commodities, as the demand will be larger than the supply. But the trading that is suggested for the commodities (instead of securities) is not a buy-and-hold method either. The appropriate trading of the commodities for now and during coming crises is one that is not based on any increasing or decreasing long run trend, but on taking advantage of smaller, but most probably larger ,waves and movements around a rather stable level of prices. In other words in econometric terms a trading of a stationary time series (or channel as the say in technical analysis) . Such sttaionary channels will have a span of course of 2,75, 5 ,11 years! In other words sub-multiples or multiples of the global climate cycle (and solar sunspot cycle of 11.1 , 22.2 years see also post 5).
We must not forget also that even if not significant changes occur in the production and demand of the commodities, significant changes in the currencies that measure their prices like in the dollar and euro, will appear as significant changes in the prices of the commodities.
Because the population of the planet is increasing and will be increasing till the second half of the 21st century, it is expected also a slight increasing trend in the prices of the above commodities, as the demand will be larger than the supply. But the trading that is suggested for the commodities (instead of securities) is not a buy-and-hold method either. The appropriate trading of the commodities for now and during coming crises is one that is not based on any increasing or decreasing long run trend, but on taking advantage of smaller, but most probably larger ,waves and movements around a rather stable level of prices. In other words in econometric terms a trading of a stationary time series (or channel as the say in technical analysis) . Such sttaionary channels will have a span of course of 2,75, 5 ,11 years! In other words sub-multiples or multiples of the global climate cycle (and solar sunspot cycle of 11.1 , 22.2 years see also post 5).
